Sector Thesis Schema

Use this reference when turning a sector discussion into a durable artifact or when testing whether a catalyst falsifies a first-principles thesis.

Core Thesis Object

Recommended JSON shape:

{
  "as_of": "YYYY-MM-DD",
  "sector": "AI hardware",
  "markets": ["US", "HK", "CN"],
  "question": "Did the catalyst falsify the sector thesis?",
  "not_investment_advice": true,
  "core_thesis": {
    "one_sentence": "",
    "first_principles_driver": "capex_cycle | supply_shortage | product_cycle | policy | commodity_cycle | liquidity | replacement_cycle | other",
    "required_chain": [
      {
        "link": "demand_impulse",
        "claim": "",
        "current_evidence": [],
        "falsification_trigger": "",
        "status": "confirmed | weakened | falsified | unknown"
      }
    ]
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "event_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
      "event": "",
      "source_class": "primary | official | reported | analyst_view | market_price | rumor",
      "attacked_links": ["supply_bottleneck"],
      "classification": "confirmation | narrative_shock | partial_thesis_attack | first_principles_falsifier | valuation_or_crowding_reset | macro_or_liquidity_beta | unknown",
      "reasoning": "",
      "missing_evidence": []
    }
  ],
  "lead_lag": {
    "window": "after_us_close | asia_preopen | local_session | multi_day",
    "signals": []
  },
  "companies": [
    {
      "name": "",
      "ticker": "",
      "role": "core_beneficiary | bottleneck_supplier | equipment_or_capacity | upstream_input | downstream_customer | platform_or_aggregator | satellite_option | macro_beta | needs_evidence",
      "thesis_capture": "",
      "proof_metrics": ["revenue", "orders", "backlog", "ASP", "gross_margin", "inventory", "capex", "capacity", "guidance"],
      "invalidators": [],
      "source_gaps": []
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "case": "base | positive | negative",
      "trigger": "",
      "sector_implication": "",
      "company_implication": "",
      "time_horizon": "same_day | 1-2_weeks | next_earnings | multi_quarter"
    }
  ],
  "source_gaps": []
}

Required Chain Links

Use these links as the default sector thesis chain:

Link	Question	Proof	Common falsifier
demand_impulse	Why does end demand accelerate now?	customer capex, adoption, utilization, policy target, order intake	capex cut, adoption stalls, lower utilization, cancellations
spending_or_orders	Does demand become measurable spend?	purchase orders, backlog, shipment guide, contract value	guide down, backlog burn without replenishment, delayed projects
supply_bottleneck	Why can supply not respond immediately?	long lead time, scarce input, capacity constraint, qualification cycle	capacity arrives faster than demand, substitute appears, lead times normalize
pricing_power	Can the chain raise price or hold price?	ASP, spot price, contract price, rental price, utilization	ASP decline, price war, rental-price compression
profit_conversion	Does revenue become earnings/cash flow?	gross margin, operating leverage, cash conversion, ROIC	margin squeeze, inventory build, receivables stretch, capex overrun
valuation_positioning	Is rerating still supported?	earnings revisions, breadth, institutional flow, valuation vs growth	crowded unwind, multiple compression, liquidity shock

Evidence Quality

Use this source hierarchy:

1. Company IR, exchange filings, SEC/HKEX/CNINFO/SSE/SZSE filings, official guidance, official customer/supplier announcements.
2. Earnings calls, investor presentations, official conference materials.
3. Reputable news with named sources or documents.
4. Broker/analyst views, channel checks, supply-chain checks.
5. Social media, forums, unsourced screenshots, price action.

Only levels 1-2 should normally support first_principles_falsifier. Levels 3-5 can support narrative_shock, reported_claim, or needs_verification.

Falsification Matrix

Event type	First question	Strong falsifier	Softer interpretation
Customer capex headline	Is spend cut or merely reallocated?	official capex guide down, order cancellation	headline changes sentiment but order book unchanged
Capacity expansion	Does new capacity arrive before demand?	credible capacity schedule exceeds demand and prices fall	expansion validates demand but raises future cycle risk
Price decline	Is price decline broad and durable?	contract/spot price breaks margin thesis	normal seasonal decline or mix shift
Big customer becomes competitor	Does it replace suppliers?	customer cancels external orders or insources at scale	bargaining pressure, not immediate loss
Policy restriction	Does it block revenue or raise cost?	export ban, license denial, subsidy removal	compliance delay, mix shift
Earnings miss	Is miss in thesis segment?	core segment order/margin guide down	unrelated segment, FX/timing, one-off
Sharp price fall	Is there fundamental evidence?	selloff plus primary evidence against chain	valuation/crowding reset

Company Mapping Rules

• A company is core_beneficiary only if the thesis can be linked to a material segment, customer, or product line.
• A company is bottleneck_supplier only when its product is scarce, hard to qualify, or capacity-constrained.
• A company is satellite_option when it benefits only in a second-order way or lacks disclosed exposure.
• A company is macro_beta when the move is mostly index, liquidity, commodity, or FX driven.
• Use needs_evidence when the connection is plausible but not yet sourced.

Output Discipline

Write conclusions as conditional:

• "The thesis is not falsified unless..."
• "This is a narrative shock until..."
• "It becomes first-principles damage if..."
• "The company remains only a satellite exposure unless..."

Never convert this schema into direct trade instructions.