REVIEWED METHODOLOGY查看源文档
使用边界这是用于组织调查、证据和复核的方法框架;重要事实需以最新主源验证,财经内容不构成投资建议。
Recent Stock Analysis Checklist
Use this checklist after reading SKILL.md when rebuilding context from only stock names or a short watchlist.
Inputs
Minimum input:
- Stock names or tickers.
- User's time horizon if provided.
- User's position weights, cost basis, or risk tolerance if provided.
Default assumptions when missing:
- Recent price window: last 5 trading days.
- News/catalyst window: last 10 calendar days.
- Context window: last 1-3 months when the move lacks an obvious catalyst.
- Output: research support, not investment advice.
Security Resolution
For each name, create:
| Field | Required behavior |
|---|---|
display_name |
User-facing name. |
ticker |
Verify from current source when possible. |
exchange |
HKEX/SSE/SZSE/Nasdaq/NYSE/etc. |
listing_type |
Common share, ADR, A-share, H-share, ETF/ETP, preferred, bond, unknown. |
confidence |
high, medium, low, or needs_confirmation. |
notes |
Ambiguity, dual listing, ticker mismatch, stale mapping risk. |
Evidence Pack
Collect and label:
| Evidence | Minimum field |
|---|---|
| Price | latest/last close, date, 1D/5D change, benchmark, sector peer if available. |
| Volume/liquidity | volume spike or note unavailable. |
| News | title, URL, source, publication time, claim type. |
| Filings | exchange/IR/SEC/HKEX/CNINFO/SSE/SZSE URL and date. |
| Financials | latest revenue, profit, margin, YoY/QoQ when available; otherwise source gap. |
| Guidance/orders | order/backlog/RPO/capex/capacity, with official/reported status. |
| Sector lead-lag | US/Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Europe leader move, benchmark, and relationship. |
| Macro | rates/FX/commodities/policy when directly relevant. |
Source Priority
- Exchange filings, company IR, SEC/HKEX/CNINFO/SSE/SZSE, official releases.
- Earnings calls, investor presentations, official product pages.
- Reputable news with named source or documents.
- Broker/analyst views, channel checks, supply-chain checks.
- Social media, forums, unsourced screenshots, price action.
Use tiers 1-2 for strong conclusions. Tiers 3-5 can support reported_claim, analyst_view, narrative_shock, or needs_verification.
Classification Rules
| Classification | Use when | Do not use when |
|---|---|---|
company_fundamental |
Company-specific financials, order, guidance, product, policy, management, or corporate action explains the move. | Only sector beta is visible. |
sector_thesis |
The move attacks or confirms a sector first-principles chain. | The company has weak exposure to that chain. |
overnight_lead_lag |
Foreign leaders or non-overlapping market sessions explain local pressure. | Local market already priced the event or no direct link exists. |
valuation_or_crowding |
Price action reflects stretched expectations, high beta, or crowded unwind without thesis damage. | Primary evidence shows orders/guidance/profit damage. |
macro_or_liquidity |
Broad risk appetite, rates, FX, credit, or index pressure dominates. | Company/sector event is enough to explain the move. |
event_watchlist |
Index, ETF/ETP, Stock Connect, rebalance, reconstitution, or product listing event matters. | No flow/corporate-action event exists. |
unknown |
Evidence is insufficient or contradictory. | The agent is merely reluctant; state what evidence would decide. |
Decision Language
Allowed:
- "This is not thesis exit unless..."
- "De-risking is justified if..."
- "This name should be separated from the shared sector bucket."
- "The next verification point is..."
- "The current evidence supports only a narrative shock, not a fundamental break."
- "Apply the sunk-cost rebuy test: if the position were cash now, would the user open the same size before the next risk window? If not, separate the failed or oversized lot from any smaller catalyst lot."
- "Apply close-first timing discipline: on high-disagreement days, morning moves are evidence rather than confirmation; prefer late-session/close confirmation for larger decisions unless a midday setup is independently confirmed and risk-defined."
Avoid:
- "Buy", "sell", "hold", "add now", "cut now".
- Exact position sizing without a user-supplied risk model.
- Price targets unless sourced and clearly labeled as analyst/market estimates.
Output QA
Before final answer, verify:
- Dates are absolute and correct.
- Each ticker/name mapping is explicit.
- Current/recent data was checked for live-market questions.
- Price action is separated from fundamental evidence.
- Company-specific source gaps are visible.
- Sector thesis and individual stock thesis are not conflated.
- A low/static PE is not treated as proof of cheapness; route earnings quality, forward EPS, historical PE, and parent/subsidiary questions to
stock-fundamentals-valuation-analyzer. - The answer contains scenarios and invalidation conditions.
- The answer says it is not investment advice.