{ "schema_version": "seed.company-comparison-rolling-update.v1", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "as_of": "2026-08-26T10:25:00+08:00", "market_data_cutoff": "2026-08-25", "stale_after": "2026-08-28T23:59:59+08:00", "stale_trigger": "Either company's 2026H1 results publication, with a full comparison refresh required after both are available", "timeline_range": { "start": "2026-08-26", "end": "2027-04-30", "policy": "aligned minimum 12-week active window plus both FY2026 preliminary-results and annual-report regulatory windows", "horizon_start": "2026-08-26", "minimum_12_week_end": "2026-11-18", "extended_through": "2027-04-30", "timezone_default": "Asia/Shanghai", "aligned_timeline_csv": "data/aligned-event-timeline-2026-08-26.csv", "method": "Each company's direct events remain separate until a common-period, common-definition comparison is possible. The axis covers at least 12 weeks and then continues to both FY2026 preliminary-results and annual-report regulatory windows." }, "next_expected_events": [ { "ticker": "01357.HK", "event": "Meitu 2026H1 results", "date": "2026-08-26", "status": "in_progress_pending_publication" }, { "ticker": "03738.HK", "event": "Vobile 2026H1 results", "date": "2026-08-28", "status": "confirmed_future" } ], "legacy_snapshot_audit": { "snapshot_date": "2026-08-09", "market_anchor": "2026-08-07", "legacy_weighted_scores": { "evidence_score_meitu": 83, "evidence_score_vobile": 47, "preference_meitu": 70, "preference_vobile": 30 }, "current_status": "deprecated_as_decision_gate", "handling": "Retained for historical audit only. Current methodology does not use a weighted total to decide company quality, valuation or action." }, "current_comparison_state": { "decision": "no_fresh_winner_pending_both_h1_actuals", "meitu": { "latest_operating_evidence": "2026H1 preliminary update published 2026-07-30", "assurance": "unaudited_and_unreviewed_management_accounts", "formal_h1_actuals": "pending", "market_close_2026_08_25_hkd": 4.335, "unresolved_gates": [ "gross_margin", "CFO", "SBC", "working_capital", "model_and_channel_costs", "fully_diluted_per_share_economics" ] }, "vobile": { "latest_operating_evidence": "2026Q1 voluntary operating update published 2026-05-19", "assurance": "preliminary_unaudited_operating_update", "formal_h1_actuals": "pending", "market_close_2026_08_25_hkd": 2.48, "unresolved_gates": [ "gross_margin", "CFO", "receivables", "capitalised_development", "net_debt", "2026_CB_funding_and_per_share_outcome" ] }, "interpretation_boundary": "The historical directional evidence advantage for Meitu has not been disproved, but it is not refreshed or promoted to a current decision while both H1 actuals are missing. Price changes do not determine business quality." }, "post_results_comparison_order": [ "financial_statement_facts", "cash_conversion_and_working_capital", "capital_structure_and_fully_diluted_shares", "unit_economics_and_moat_evidence", "date_aligned_valuation_gates", "counterevidence_and_invalidation" ], "forward_timeline": [ { "event_id": "MEITU_H1_2026", "companies": [ "01357.HK" ], "event_type": "earnings_release", "event": "Meitu 2026H1 formal results", "scheduled_at_current": "2026-08-26 date only", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "2026-08-26 date only", "date_status": "confirmed", "status": "in_progress_pending_publication", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:F08", "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_INDEX_20260826" ], "source_gap": "Release clock time and actual filing remained unavailable at the cutoff.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Can the July baseline be reconciled to revenue, margins, CFO, SBC, net cash and diluted EPS?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Update Meitu actual only; do not rank until Vobile actual is available.", "next_check": "On filing and after Vobile H1.", "key_metrics": [ "Can the July baseline be reconciled to revenue, margins, CFO, SBC, net cash and diluted EPS?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "On filing and after Vobile H1." }, { "event_id": "VOBILE_H1_2026", "companies": [ "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "earnings_release", "event": "Vobile 2026H1 formal results", "scheduled_at_current": "2026-08-28 date only", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "2026-08-28 date only", "date_status": "confirmed", "status": "confirmed_future", "source_refs": [ "VOBILE:ROLL_FUBO_BOARD_20260813" ], "source_gap": "Release clock time and actual filing remained unavailable at the cutoff.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Can Q1 growth be reconciled to absolute H1 revenue, margins, CFO, receivables, development cost, net debt and diluted EPS?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "After both actuals exist, align periods, definitions, currencies and capital structures before comparison.", "next_check": "On filing and after Meitu H1.", "key_metrics": [ "Can Q1 growth be reconciled to absolute H1 revenue, margins, CFO, receivables, development cost, net debt and diluted EPS?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "On filing and after Meitu H1." }, { "event_id": "AUG_MONTHLY_RETURNS_2026", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "filing_due", "event": "Both companies' August monthly returns", "scheduled_at_current": "By the fifth Hong Kong business day after 2026-08-31", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "Date-only statutory window", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_MONTHLY_RETURN_RULE_1325B", "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_MONTHLY_RETURN_RULE_1325B" ], "source_gap": "Exact filing dates are not pre-announced.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Did either fully diluted denominator change, and did Vobile disclose any pre-maturity CB movement?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Refresh both capital-structure bridges on the same cutoff.", "next_check": "After month-end until both returns are filed.", "key_metrics": [ "Did either fully diluted denominator change, and did Vobile disclose any pre-maturity CB movement?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "After month-end until both returns are filed." }, { "event_id": "VOBILE_CB_MATURITY", "companies": [ "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "other", "event": "Vobile 2026 convertible-bond maturity", "scheduled_at_current": "2026-09-27 date only", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "2026-09-27 date only", "date_status": "confirmed", "status": "confirmed_future_hard_gate", "source_refs": [ "VOBILE:F04", "VOBILE:ROLL_FUBO_JULY_RETURN_20260806" ], "source_gap": "Funding and actual settlement outcome were undisclosed at the cutoff.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Was principal repaid, refinanced, converted or extended, and what was the cash, covenant and per-share effect?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Rebuild Vobile net debt and diluted shares before resuming valuation comparison.", "next_check": "On any funding filing and again on 2026-09-28.", "key_metrics": [ "Was principal repaid, refinanced, converted or extended, and what was the cash, covenant and per-share effect?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "On any funding filing and again on 2026-09-28." }, { "event_id": "INTERIM_REPORTS_2026", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "filing_due", "event": "Both companies' 2026 interim reports", "scheduled_at_current": "By 2026-09-30 regulatory outer deadline", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "By 2026-09-30 date only", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_PERIODIC_REPORTING_RULES", "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_PERIODIC_REPORTING_RULES" ], "source_gap": "Neither company had confirmed an exact publication date.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Do full notes change cash conversion, capitalised or share-based costs, debt, commitments or fully diluted shares?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Close announcement-level gaps using the full notes before scoring evidence quality.", "next_check": "On each publication or 2026-09-30.", "key_metrics": [ "Do full notes change cash conversion, capitalised or share-based costs, debt, commitments or fully diluted shares?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "On each publication or 2026-09-30." }, { "event_id": "SEP_MONTHLY_RETURNS_2026", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "filing_due", "event": "Both companies' September monthly returns", "scheduled_at_current": "By the fifth Hong Kong business day after 2026-09-30", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "Date-only statutory window", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_MONTHLY_RETURN_RULE_1325B", "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_MONTHLY_RETURN_RULE_1325B" ], "source_gap": "Exact filing dates are not pre-announced.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Did Meitu's post-results share supply change, and does Vobile's return evidence the CB settlement state?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Refresh both denominators and verify the debt event from filed securities records.", "next_check": "After month-end until both returns are filed.", "key_metrics": [ "Did Meitu's post-results share supply change, and does Vobile's return evidence the CB settlement state?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "After month-end until both returns are filed." }, { "event_id": "OCT_MONTHLY_RETURNS_2026", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "filing_due", "event": "Both companies' October monthly returns", "scheduled_at_current": "By the fifth Hong Kong business day after 2026-10-31", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "Date-only statutory window", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_MONTHLY_RETURN_RULE_1325B", "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_MONTHLY_RETURN_RULE_1325B" ], "source_gap": "Exact filing dates are not pre-announced.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Did either company's capital bridge change during the minimum 12-week horizon?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Set an aligned capital-structure cutoff through early November.", "next_check": "After month-end until both returns are filed.", "key_metrics": [ "Did either company's capital bridge change during the minimum 12-week horizon?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "After month-end until both returns are filed." }, { "event_id": "VOBILE_Q3_2026", "companies": [ "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "business_update", "event": "Possible Vobile 2026 Q3 voluntary operating update", "scheduled_at_current": "TBA", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "TBA date only", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_INDEX_20260826" ], "source_gap": "Occurrence and timing were not committed by the company.", "pre_event_questions": [ "If published, do revenue and MRR reconcile with H1 cash quality?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Use only if a primary filing appears; never assign a historical-cadence single date.", "next_check": "Recheck through 2026-11-18.", "key_metrics": [ "If published, do revenue and MRR reconcile with H1 cash quality?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "Recheck through 2026-11-18." }, { "event_id": "FY2026_RESULTS", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "filing_due", "event": "Both companies' FY2026 preliminary annual results", "scheduled_at_current": "By 2027-03-31 regulatory outer deadline", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "By 2027-03-31 date only", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_PERIODIC_REPORTING_RULES", "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_PERIODIC_REPORTING_RULES" ], "source_gap": "Neither company had confirmed a release date.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Did H2 growth convert to owner earnings and fully diluted per-share value under aligned definitions?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Rebuild both full-year denominators before any refreshed comparative conclusion.", "next_check": "On each board notice or by 2027-03-31.", "key_metrics": [ "Did H2 growth convert to owner earnings and fully diluted per-share value under aligned definitions?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "On each board notice or by 2027-03-31." }, { "event_id": "FY2026_ANNUAL_REPORTS", "companies": [ "01357.HK", "03738.HK" ], "event_type": "filing_due", "event": "Both companies' FY2026 annual reports", "scheduled_at_current": "By 2027-04-30 regulatory outer deadline", "event_timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "beijing_time": "By 2027-04-30 date only", "date_status": "tba", "status": "TBA", "source_refs": [ "MEITU:ROLL_HKEX_PERIODIC_REPORTING_RULES", "VOBILE:ROLL_HKEX_PERIODIC_REPORTING_RULES" ], "source_gap": "Neither company had confirmed a publication date.", "pre_event_questions": [ "Do audited notes change owner earnings, net cash or debt, dilution, commitments and risk conclusions?" ], "actual": {}, "comparison_action": "Run an audited like-for-like comparison only after both reports exist.", "next_check": "On each publication or by 2027-04-30.", "key_metrics": [ "Do audited notes change owner earnings, net cash or debt, dilution, commitments and risk conclusions?" ], "actual_results": null, "next_check_at": "On each publication or by 2027-04-30." } ], "source_gaps": [ "Both companies' formal 2026H1 results and interim-report notes were unavailable at the cutoff.", "Meitu lacks disclosed retention cohorts, CAC, AI-credit unit margin and model/channel cost bridge.", "Vobile lacks maintenance-development spending, asset cohorts and a disclosed September 27 funding solution with per-share effects.", "No point-in-time, definition-aligned direct-peer forward valuation set is available." ], "change_log": [ { "at": "2026-08-26T10:25:00+08:00", "change": "Deprecated legacy weighted totals as a current gate, synchronised both companies' event and market states, and extended the joint post-results and convertible-bond timeline.", "authoring_boundary": "No new winner, target price or buy/sell recommendation was produced." }, { "at": "2026-08-26T10:25:00+08:00", "change": "Expanded the aligned axis through the 2026-11-18 minimum horizon and onward to both FY2026 annual-report outer windows on 2027-04-30; linked the detailed aligned CSV with source gaps, pre-event questions, actual placeholders and next checks.", "authoring_boundary": "Dates without primary confirmation remain TBA or regulatory windows, and the comparison does not create a winner before aligned actuals." } ] }