{ "schema_version": "seed.stock-fundamentals-valuation.v2", "artifact_type": "stock_fundamentals_valuation", "artifact_role": "public_company_research_upgrade", "status": "needs_human_review", "generated_at": "2026-08-08T20:20:00+08:00", "security": { "security_id": "XHKG:01357", "company_name": "Meitu, Inc.", "company_name_zh": "美图公司", "ticker": "01357", "exchange": "HKEX", "listing_type": "ordinary_hk_share", "currency": "HKD", "fiscal_year_end": "12-31", "reporting_standard": "HKFRS" }, "as_of": { "research_date": "2026-08-08", "price": 4.75, "price_date": "2026-08-07", "price_source_ref": "P08" }, "decision_summary": { "question_1": "未来十年，完全摊薄后的 owner earnings per share 能否持续复合增长？", "answer_1": "机制已经可描述但尚未被十年级证据证明：付费用户、ARPU、国际化、生产力应用和经营杠杆必须共同跑赢模型/渠道成本、SBC 与可转债稀释。2026H1 预告增强了未来一年的证据，却没有披露留存、单位经济性、毛利或现金流。", "question_2": "在 2026-08-07 收盘 HK$4.75 的价格下，预期股东回报与安全边际是否足够？", "answer_2": "按保留 SBC 的 FY2026 盈利能力代理，前瞻倍数约 17.1–20.9 倍；更新后的资本结构一致 DCF 为 HK$2.48 / 5.04 / 7.31。基础值只比现价高约 6.1%，不足以覆盖未审阅中报、留存、AI 成本、竞争和稀释误差。", "routing": "verification_watchlist", "routing_reason": "经营改善不是排除项，但当前证据和价格组合尚未越过长期护城河、owner earnings 与安全边际闸门。", "next_hard_gate": "2026-08-26 formal interim results" }, "methodology_refs": [ { "id": "berkshire_1996_letter", "title": "1996 Chairman's Letter", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1996.html", "use": "用可理解性与可预测性约束能力圈，不以短期题材替代经营证据。" }, { "id": "berkshire_1986_letter", "title": "1986 Chairman's Letter", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1986.html", "use": "用 owner earnings 桥接净利润、非现金费用、维护性投入和营运资本需求。" }, { "id": "berkshire_2005_letter", "title": "2005 Chairman's Letter", "url": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2005ltr.pdf", "use": "把长期竞争位置、管理层资本配置与每股结果放在同一框架中复核。" } ], "source_refs": [ { "id": "F01", "tier": "A", "source_type": "audited_annual_report", "title": "Meitu, Inc. Annual Report 2025", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0427/2026042702560.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-04-27", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "FY2025", "audit_status": "audited", "scope": "consolidated_group", "covers": [ "financial_statements", "continuing_and_discontinued_operations", "revenue_mix", "operating_kpis", "cash_flow", "adjusted_profit_bridge", "ownership", "governance" ], "content_sha256": "03cbf35ab1961e85e0c45fc31e6b58751a3cb7f4ff8135f0275d06521a1edd0f" }, { "id": "F02", "tier": "A", "source_type": "interim_report", "title": "Meitu, Inc. Interim Report 2025", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0925/2025092501275.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2025-09-25", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2025H1", "audit_status": "unaudited", "scope": "consolidated_group", "covers": [ "interim_financial_statements", "channel_costs", "compute_costs", "foundation_model_strategy" ], "content_sha256": "6b76a0f90583027c10d5aa8888e580f8344a1c75da93293149cbc36f7cc85e3c" }, { "id": "F03", "tier": "A", "source_type": "voluntary_business_update", "title": "First Quarter 2026 Business Update", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0506/2026050600053.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-05-06", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026Q1", "audit_status": "unaudited", "scope": "selected_operating_kpis", "covers": [ "core_revenue", "paying_subscribers", "productivity_mix", "ai_arr", "ai_credit_consumption" ], "content_sha256": "26c2ce17d1e78a2e48408f53babd64be4b3b6e18d72858d31c13259630865bb2", "tier_mapping_note": "Legacy ledger A- is normalized to v2 tier A because this is an official HKEX filing; unaudited status remains explicit." }, { "id": "F04", "tier": "A", "source_type": "exchange_announcement", "title": "Share Repurchase Plan of Up to HK$300 Million", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0327/2026032700936.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-03-27", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026 repurchase authorization", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "listed_security", "covers": [ "repurchase_authorization", "capital_allocation" ], "content_sha256": "e54bf83411239189394fe66d985956511d62ba06922bdc840c3a4fc84295348f" }, { "id": "F05", "tier": "A", "source_type": "exchange_announcement", "title": "Purchase of Shares by Founder and Chairman", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0703/2026070302393.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-03", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026-07-03", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "founder_disclosed_interest", "covers": [ "founder_purchase", "beneficial_ownership", "insider_action" ], "content_sha256": "7aecd4910aa515d92e255384c9f51fb766527bd22dd06d1ed76f8529cc3dadae" }, { "id": "F06", "tier": "A", "source_type": "next_day_disclosure_return", "title": "Next Day Disclosure Return dated 26 June 2026", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0626/2026062600948.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-06-26", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026-06-26", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "issued_shares_and_treasury_shares", "covers": [ "share_count", "treasury_shares", "repurchase_execution" ], "content_sha256": "a5fe0c8775671376bb95b6eb399993cebd629b696f41ef91cbb49d09def123a5" }, { "id": "F07", "tier": "A", "source_type": "exchange_announcement", "title": "Completion of Issue of Convertible Bonds to Alibaba", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1231/2025123101815.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2025-12-31", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2025 convertible completion", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "convertible_bond_and_share_dilution", "covers": [ "convertible_principal", "conversion_price", "potential_conversion_shares", "dilution" ], "content_sha256": "10041adb64d4f0ce4382f277b551800b284de887631a91767dd3068d0688d268" }, { "id": "F08", "tier": "A", "source_type": "exchange_announcement", "title": "Notice of Board Meeting for 2026 Interim Results", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0715/2026071500702.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-15", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026H1 reporting calendar", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "result_publication_date", "covers": [ "event_calendar", "next_evidence_date" ], "content_sha256": "598719d68c51f12783597a0347c2f3a591260fc62037696459cf75b1fae9ff0f" }, { "id": "F16", "tier": "A", "source_type": "voluntary_business_and_financial_performance_update", "title": "Business and Financial Performance Update for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2026", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0730/2026073001140.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-30", "accessed_at": "2026-08-04", "period": "2026H1", "audit_status": "unaudited", "scope": "selected_operating_kpis_and_preliminary_management_accounts", "covers": [ "mau", "paying_subscribers", "productivity_and_leisure_mix", "ai_arr", "ai_credit_consumption", "core_revenue", "preliminary_adjusted_profit_growth", "preliminary_ifrs_profit_growth" ], "content_sha256": "e9c590ec0e950cc14a279c84a4cccfc72b0a5c11e14f1ad8593ff4d54ec6c5d3", "limitations": "Official HKEX filing but based on unaudited and unreviewed management accounts; formal gross margin, expenses, SBC, cash flow, balance sheet and statutory bridge remain pending." }, { "id": "F09", "tier": "A", "source_type": "audited_annual_report", "title": "Meitu, Inc. Annual Report 2024", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0425/2025042502209.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2025-04-25", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "FY2024", "audit_status": "audited", "scope": "consolidated_group", "covers": [ "financial_statements", "historical_operating_kpis", "accounting_presentation" ], "content_sha256": "b3a622bb05b44ead433d3bbbf4ec56051de16354d268d43ebc72cc4a0fd6b4ea" }, { "id": "F10", "tier": "A", "source_type": "audited_annual_report", "title": "Meitu, Inc. Annual Report 2023", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0425/2024042502767.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2024-04-25", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "FY2023", "audit_status": "audited", "scope": "consolidated_group", "covers": [ "financial_statements", "historical_operating_kpis" ], "content_sha256": "4d939d5ea43cff5ec86619d34eddeca2e948bda049e5270d40d9a3905f4f74ce" }, { "id": "MT_AR2022", "tier": "A", "source_type": "audited_annual_report", "title": "Meitu, Inc. Annual Report 2022", "url": "https://corp-static.meitu.com/corp-new/20230426/Annual%20Report%20%28E%29.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2023-04-26", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "FY2022", "audit_status": "audited", "scope": "consolidated_group_as_then_reported", "covers": [ "financial_statements", "cash_and_debt", "working_capital", "roic_screening_proxy" ], "content_sha256": "d62cc5e9cb1cdcdc10c602df2fe1cf381a70e0309c6856933020707fdc282387" }, { "id": "MT_AR2021", "tier": "A", "source_type": "audited_annual_report", "title": "Meitu, Inc. Annual Report 2021", "url": "https://corp-static.meitu.com/corp-new/20220428/Annual%20Report%20%28E%29.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2022-04-28", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "FY2021", "audit_status": "audited", "scope": "consolidated_group_as_then_reported", "covers": [ "financial_statements", "cash_and_debt", "working_capital", "roic_screening_proxy" ], "content_sha256": "1d3a94fa168700893d3f10f030c06e929d543de409512cb8ec0529af9ce29878" }, { "id": "F14", "tier": "A", "source_type": "convertible_bond_terms", "title": "Subscription of US$250 Million Convertible Bonds by Alibaba", "url": "https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0520/2025052001407.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2025-05-20", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2025 convertible bond terms", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "convertible_bond_contract", "covers": [ "conversion_option", "maturity_repayment", "conversion_price_adjustment", "relevant_events", "debt_ranking" ], "content_sha256": "87f27e999e523ddfc074850b561371783ff14e92891f20c2d100bdd8becec47f" }, { "id": "R05", "tier": "A", "source_type": "exchange_announcement", "title": "Investigation and Remedial Actions for Premature Publicity Video", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0618/2026061801536.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-06-18", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026 disclosure-control remediation", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "listed_issuer_governance_and_disclosure_controls", "covers": [ "premature_results_publicity_incident", "investigation", "remedial_actions", "delayed_fund_subscription_disclosure" ], "content_sha256": "3293a73366f9ab64bdbfa66a670ad2a1aa531c367fbd5cd6e9b3e97133c5bca8", "limitations": "公司调查与补救公告能证明事件和已宣布措施，不能证明未来控制已持续有效。" }, { "id": "P01", "tier": "B", "source_type": "market_data", "title": "Tencent qfq Daily Market Snapshot — 01357.HK", "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hk01357,day,2023-01-01,2026-07-24,1000,qfq", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-24", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2023-01-01 to 2026-07-24", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "01357.HK adjusted_daily_prices", "covers": [ "price", "returns", "event_windows", "volatility" ], "content_sha256": "dd23814f21d1fde7ee59729dcb00d2623f6fd9861ef3bac9a86ec097d7c04675", "tier_mapping_note": "Legacy ledger B- is normalized to v2 tier B; vendor data are not exchange-certified." }, { "id": "P03", "tier": "B", "source_type": "market_data", "title": "Tencent qfq Daily Market Snapshot — 01357.HK through 3 August 2026", "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hk01357,day,2023-01-01,2026-08-04,1000,qfq", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-08-03", "accessed_at": "2026-08-04", "period": "2023-01-01 to 2026-08-03 completed sessions", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "01357.HK adjusted_daily_prices", "covers": [ "price", "returns", "event_windows", "volatility" ], "content_sha256": "accbada4fecae5bfce2499a5695cbf8f527a5c1b053d15a65f1e6c72e2f53ae6", "limitations": "Vendor data are not exchange-certified; incomplete 4 August bar excluded from completed-session calculations." }, { "id": "F17", "tier": "A", "source_type": "official_monthly_return", "title": "Monthly Return of Equity Issuer for July 2026", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0805/2026080501298.pdf", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-08-05", "accessed_at": "2026-08-08", "period": "July 2026", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "issued_shares_and_treasury_shares", "covers": ["share_count", "treasury_shares", "public_float_compliance"], "content_sha256": "81437b32837f382e5f7e8a51e9cdbe8704034a2da587cb7ce04b91053e428487", "limitations": "A monthly return is not an operating update and cannot prove that no undisclosed information exists." }, { "id": "P08", "tier": "B", "source_type": "market_data", "title": "Tencent qfq completed daily closing snapshot — 01357.HK and HSTECH through 7 August 2026", "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hk01357,day,2026-07-24,2026-08-08,30,qfq", "benchmark_url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSTECH,day,2026-07-24,2026-08-08,30,qfq", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-08-07", "accessed_at": "2026-08-08", "period": "2026-07-24 to 2026-08-07 completed sessions", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "01357.HK_and_HSTECH_adjusted_daily_prices", "covers": ["price", "returns", "event_windows", "moving_averages"], "content_sha256": "b662db4b5dfd29d38ca8fe7c20cdbc2660fa41d147e686e7a62e14c586a2da64", "benchmark_content_sha256": "df762e0bd7832f045fa039094c64959f8c67bf0c2d7fcad5fdcc0512a1450e67", "limitations": "Vendor data are not exchange-certified; 7 August is the latest completed session and no weekend price is used." }, { "id": "P04", "tier": "A", "source_type": "official_fx_quote", "title": "Bank of China HKD/CNY Quote — 4 August 2026 10:15:36", "url": "https://www.bankofchina.com/sourcedb/whpj/", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-08-04", "accessed_at": "2026-08-04", "period": "2026-08-04 10:15:36 Asia/Shanghai", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "HKD_CNY_bank_quote", "covers": [ "fx_conversion" ], "content_sha256": "a47231bbd2757283e08941ba246a28e5bc964f2920ddaceb29052e920792b1b8", "limitations": "Selected 0.8660 middle-rate snapshot is one business day after the 3 August price anchor; dates are disclosed separately." }, { "id": "R10", "tier": "A", "source_type": "official_short_position_series", "title": "Aggregated Reportable Short Positions of Specified Shares", "url": "https://www.sfc.hk/en/Regulatory-functions/Market/Short-position-reporting/Aggregated-reportable-short-positions-of-specified-shares", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-17", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "selected weekly observations from 2026-01-02 to 2026-07-17", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "reportable_net_short_positions_meeting_SFC_threshold", "covers": [ "reportable_short_position_trend", "short_position_as_share_of_non_treasury_issued_shares" ], "content_sha256": "22e97934c1fa5fb99b869f691b9df9c76c632c23c567ed4b3668fb9fb56942a1", "limitations": "The checksum covers the 17 July CSV only. The series is thresholded, lagged and may include hedges; it is not total short interest, borrow utilisation or investor motive." }, { "id": "R11", "tier": "B", "source_type": "daily_short_selling_turnover", "title": "Meitu Daily Short-selling Activity", "url": "https://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/stocks/realtime/quote_shortsell.php?code=01357", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-27", "accessed_at": "2026-07-27", "period": "2026-06-01 to 2026-07-27", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "secondary_presentation_of_HKEX_sourced_daily_short_turnover", "covers": [ "daily_short_selling_turnover_ratio", "June_vs_July_turnover_intensity", "2026-07-27_incomplete_half_day_observation" ], "content_sha256": "edd09f8c2cb6474f508abf0e7ac8860973791c8e0ecb8e8387e124ec994b7f6a", "limitations": "Gross short-selling turnover is not a change in net short positions. The 27 July 30.503% observation was marked as incomplete half-day data." }, { "id": "R12", "tier": "A", "source_type": "official_short_position_snapshot", "title": "Reportable Short Position Aggregated Data — 24 July 2026", "url": "https://www.sfc.hk/-/media/EN/pdf/spr/2026/07/24/Short_Position_Reporting_Aggregated_Data_20260724.csv", "published_at_status": "known", "published_at": "2026-07-24", "accessed_at": "2026-08-04", "period": "2026-07-24", "audit_status": "not_applicable", "scope": "reportable_net_short_positions_meeting_SFC_threshold", "covers": [ "latest_reportable_short_position", "short_position_as_share_of_non_treasury_issued_shares" ], "content_sha256": "92109739c714d3e69497b1eaf5b8190d260cfef6c6e7b8f6713134fe3f1b045b", "limitations": "Thresholded and lagged positions may include hedges and are not total or free-float short interest." } ], "source_boundaries": { "facts": "财务、股本、可转债与公告日历优先采用带校验和的 HKEX 文件；价格采用带校验和的第三方日线快照；净空仓趋势优先采用 SFC 周度申报数据。", "reported_claims": "公司调整后利润、ARR、模型路线与管理层表述均保留为公司口径，不升级为独立验证事实。", "interpretations": "Owner earnings、净现金类资产、DCF、护城河与替代风险是研究推导，必须与披露值分列。", "assumptions": "维护性投入、正常营运资本、汇率换算与长期增长均为显式假设或待补证输入。", "source_gaps": "未披露的留存、CAC、地区 ARPU、分产品毛利与供应商集中度不得填 0；全摊薄股数只给保守 ceiling，不冒充审计 EPS 分母。", "page_level_evidence": "公开 evidence-index 将 20 条核心事实绑定本 combined artifact；critical-evidence-anchors 进一步把 31 条关键事实绑定至原文页码、表名/章节、页内标准化文本行号、整份文本哈希与页文本哈希。其余长尾事实仍主要停留在 source-level。" }, "evidence_locator_contract": { "core_anchor_count": 20, "critical_anchor_count": 31, "core_index": "evidence-index.json", "critical_index": "data/critical-evidence-anchors.json", "public_locator_table": "data/critical-evidence-locators.csv", "line_scope": "page_local_normalized_pdf_text", "extractor": "pypdf 6.14.2 via seed.sources.filing_documents.extract_pdf_evidence", "binding": "document_sha256 + overall_text_sha256 + page_text_sha256 + page_number + line_start + line_end", "private_boundary": "完整 PDF 文本快照保留在私有 library；公开报告只发布短摘、定位元数据、哈希和官方原始链接。" }, "ownership_structure": { "controller": "2025 年报与 2026-07-03 公告显示创始人吴欣鸿披露权益约 12.97%；蔡文胜为另一主要股东。控制、VIE 合同安排及少数股东价值转移仍需页码级复核。", "treasury_share_policy": "库存股不计入当前流通经济权利，但未来再发行可能恢复摊薄。", "fully_diluted_share_bridge": { "as_of": "2025-12-31, with 2026-06-26 basic-share cross-check", "unit": "million shares", "shares_excluding_treasury": 4523.17678, "treasury_shares": 63.0025, "issued_shares_including_treasury": 4586.17928, "known_convertible_if_converted": 335.513916, "issued_if_only_convertible_converts": 4921.693196, "economic_shares_ex_treasury_if_only_convertible_converts": 4858.690696, "official_post_conversion_dilution_pct": 6.82, "economic_dilution_ex_treasury_pct": 6.9054, "fy2025_weighted_average_basic": 4538.255, "fy2025_weighted_average_diluted": 4574.186, "year_end_2025_issued_shares": 4586.17928, "year_end_2025_options": 1.351948, "year_end_2025_outstanding_awards_conservative_addition": 50.350652, "fully_diluted_no_conversion": 4637.88188, "cb_principal_only_conversion_shares": 325.741666, "cb_maximum_conversion_shares_including_maturity_interest": 335.513916, "fully_diluted_principal_only": 4963.623546, "fully_diluted_all_in": 4973.395796, "formula": "4,586.179280 + 1.351948 + 50.350652 + 335.513916 = 4,973.395796 million conservative fully diluted shares.", "source_refs": [ "F01", "F06", "F07", "F14" ], "data_artifact": "data/fully-diluted-share-bridge.csv", "limitations": [ "4,973.395796 百万股是保守 ceiling，不是审计 EPS 分母；部分奖励可能由已发行受托股或市场购股满足，全部加回可能重复计算。", "2026-06-26 基本股数反映后续库存股，但没有同日奖励余额，不能与 2025-12-31 奖励余额机械拼接。", "转换情景必须同时移除相应可转债负债；未转换情景保留本金和利息偿付。" ] } }, "financial_history": { "periods": [ { "period": "FY2021", "period_type": "annual", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "scope": "consolidated_group_as_then_reported", "revenue": 1666.029, "gross_profit": 1125.087, "gross_margin_pct": 67.531, "parent_net_income": -44.514, "operating_cash_flow": -26.318, "reported_capex": 37.725, "depreciation_and_amortisation": 75.939, "employee_share_based_compensation": 55.502, "cash_and_liquid_financial_resources": 1258.191, "owner_earnings_base": null, "source_refs": [ "MT_AR2021", "MT_AR2022" ], "limitations": [ "包含后来终止或处置的业务；没有 2025 持续经营口径的追溯重列。", "因此不制造同口径 owner earnings。" ] }, { "period": "FY2022", "period_type": "annual", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "scope": "consolidated_group_as_then_reported", "revenue": 2085.329, "gross_profit": 1187.272, "gross_margin_pct": 56.935, "parent_net_income": 94.142, "operating_cash_flow": 233.99, "reported_capex": 65.761, "depreciation_and_amortisation": 62.783, "employee_share_based_compensation": 47.324, "cash_and_liquid_financial_resources": 1390.031, "owner_earnings_base": null, "source_refs": [ "MT_AR2022" ], "limitations": [ "包含后来终止或处置的业务；没有 2025 持续经营口径的追溯重列。", "因此不制造同口径 owner earnings。" ] }, { "period": "FY2023", "period_type": "annual", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "scope": "reported_total", "revenue": 2695.738, "gross_profit": 1655.876, "gross_margin_pct": 61.4, "parent_net_income": 378.293, "company_adjusted_parent_profit": 368.297, "core_photo_video_design_revenue": 1327.384, "paying_subscribers_m": 9.11, "source_refs": [ "F10" ] }, { "period": "FY2024", "period_type": "annual", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "scope": "reported_total_with_later_discontinued_operation_reclassification", "revenue": 3340.761, "continuing_revenue_restated_in_FY2025": 2996.182, "gross_profit": 2294.211, "gross_margin_pct": 68.7, "parent_net_income": 805.176, "company_adjusted_parent_profit": 586.167, "core_photo_video_design_revenue": 2085.616, "paying_subscribers_m": 12.61, "source_refs": [ "F09", "F01" ] }, { "period": "FY2025", "period_type": "annual", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "scope": "continuing_operations_except_explicit_total_parent_profit", "revenue": 3858.738, "gross_profit": 2838.813, "gross_margin_pct": 73.6, "parent_net_income_total": 582.9, "parent_net_income_continuing": 697.563, "company_adjusted_parent_profit": 965.347, "core_photo_video_design_revenue": 2954.033, "paying_subscribers_m": 16.91, "subscription_rate_pct": 6.1, "operating_cash_flow": 1257.0, "reported_capex_proxy": 48.0, "cfo_less_capex_proxy": 1209.0, "source_refs": [ "F01" ] }, { "period": "2026Q1", "period_type": "quarterly_business_update", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "scope": "selected_unaudited_unreviewed_operating_kpis", "core_photo_video_design_revenue": 852.0, "core_revenue_yoy_pct": 34.3, "paying_subscribers_m_more_than": 17.9, "paying_subscribers_yoy_pct": 30.2, "productivity_paying_subscribers_m": 2.34, "ai_productivity_arr": 580.0, "profit": null, "gross_margin_pct": null, "operating_cash_flow": null, "source_refs": [ "F03" ] } ], "comparability_note": "FY2021—FY2023 是当年集团口径；2025 将美业解决方案列为终止经营，只有 FY2024 比较数被重列。跨年总收入与利润必须标记范围断点，不能把 FY2021—FY2024 reported total 与 FY2025 continuing revenue 直接视为同口径。", "data_artifact": "data/financial-five-year.csv" }, "returns_on_capital_screen": { "status": "screening_proxy_not_economic_roic", "currency": "CNY", "roic_proxy_pct": [ {"period": "FY2021", "value": -7.89, "source_refs": ["MT_AR2021"]}, {"period": "FY2022", "value": -6.86, "source_refs": ["MT_AR2022"]}, {"period": "FY2023", "value": 14.21, "source_refs": ["F10", "F01"]}, {"period": "FY2024", "value": 26.76, "source_refs": ["F09", "F01"]}, {"period": "FY2025", "value": 66.74, "source_refs": ["F01"]} ], "incremental_roic": { "status": "not_determinable", "reason": "FY2024 to FY2025 average operating capital declined as contract liabilities grew; mechanical delta NOPAT / delta capital has a negative denominator and is not economically interpretable." }, "method": "Core operating profit excludes other income, finance, associates and selected non-operating items; NOPAT applies a 25% screening tax rate when positive; average operating capital includes operating assets less operating liabilities and contract liabilities.", "limitations": [ "研发费用没有资本化，会抬高成熟期 ROIC。", "2024—2025 分子为持续经营而资产负债表分母仍是集团口径。", "订阅合同负债显著降低经营资本；这是有价值的 float，也可能在增长放缓时回转。", "这是研究筛查指标，不是公司披露或稳定经济 ROIC。" ], "data_artifact": "data/roic-history.csv" }, "segment_data": { "status": "applicable_with_scope", "period": "FY2025", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "segments": [ { "name": "core_photo_video_and_design_products", "revenue": 2954.033, "share_of_continuing_revenue_pct": 76.55 }, { "name": "online_advertising", "revenue": 842.595, "share_of_continuing_revenue_pct": 21.84 }, { "name": "other", "revenue": 62.11, "share_of_continuing_revenue_pct": 1.61 } ], "reconciliation": "2,954.033 + 842.595 + 62.110 = 3,858.738 million CNY continuing revenue.", "source_refs": [ "F01" ], "limitations": [ "公司没有在本证据包中披露每个 App、网站、地区或用户 cohort 的收入、毛利、留存与 CAC。", "终止经营的美业解决方案不得与持续经营核心业务混作同一增长序列。" ] }, "research_dimensions": [ { "dimension": "security_and_legal_subject", "status": "applicable", "summary": "证券、发行人、上市地点、价格日期与点时股本已由年报、股本回报和价格快照交叉定位。", "indicators": [ { "id": "exact_security_issuer_share_class_and_rights", "status": "observed", "summary": "研究对象为 Meitu, Inc. 在 HKEX 上市的普通股 01357。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "id": "dated_price_share_count_currency_and_listing_status", "status": "observed", "summary": "价格锚定 2026-08-07 HKD 4.75；最新官方月报已将股本锚定更新至 2026-07-31，日期差已保留。", "source_refs": ["F06", "F17", "P08"], "source_gaps": [] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "F17", "P08"], "positive_evidence": ["证券身份与价格/股本日期可复核。"], "counter_evidence": ["价格日与最近股本月报期末相差 7 天；截至 8 月 8 日检查时，8 月 5 日发布的 7 月月报仍是最新股本文件，期间仍需继续扫公告。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "control_and_beneficial_ownership", "status": "unknown", "summary": "主要股东权益与创始人增持可见，但质押、交叉持股、NCI 及关联价值转移未形成完整闭环。", "indicators": [ { "id": "controller_voting_pledges_and_cross_holdings", "status": "observed", "summary": "年报与创始人增持公告提供主要权益和近期内部人动作。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F05"], "source_gaps": ["尚未形成质押、交叉持股及 VIE 权利逐项页码索引。"] }, { "id": "value_transfers_nci_and_related_party_exposure", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "现有 combined 资料不足以量化 NCI、关联交易与少数股东价值转移。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需逐页提取关联方、非控股权益、VIE 服务费与担保。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F05"], "positive_evidence": ["创始人持股与增持有正式公告。"], "counter_evidence": ["内部人买入不能替代控制权和价值转移审查。"], "source_gaps": ["缺少质押、NCI、VIE 与关联价值转移的完整桥。"] }, { "dimension": "business_model", "status": "applicable", "summary": "收入以影像与设计产品的订阅/付费为核心，广告为第二来源；轻实物资本并不等于低经济投入。", "indicators": [ { "id": "payer_value_proposition_revenue_and_cash_mechanism", "status": "observed", "summary": "核心产品向休闲和生产力用户提供影像、视频和设计工具，通过订阅及 credits 变现。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["分 App、地区、cohort 的 ARPU 和续费未披露。"] }, { "id": "capital_needs_and_business_failure_variables", "status": "observed", "summary": "主要经济投入是研发、推理/API、渠道分成和营销；失败变量包括模型替代、平台费率与付费留存。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["第三方模型成本、credits 单位毛利及渠道议价能力未单列。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03"], "positive_evidence": ["核心收入、付费人数和生产力付费人数持续增长。"], "counter_evidence": ["核心付费增长仍可能被渠道费、推理成本与模型商品化吸收。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "revenue_structure", "status": "unknown", "summary": "FY2025 持续经营分部可以对账，但价格、用量、地区和收购范围桥不完整。", "indicators": [ { "id": "segment_product_and_geography_reconciliation", "status": "observed", "summary": "核心产品、广告和其他收入可重算至持续经营总收入。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["缺少每个 App 和地区的财务分解。"] }, { "id": "volume_price_mix_acquisition_and_scope_bridge", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "付费人数增长可见，但 ARPU、续费、价格、credits 用量和范围变化无法完整拆分。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["需要同口径付费 cohort、ARPU、地区和产品收入桥。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F03"], "positive_evidence": ["FY2025 核心收入占持续经营收入约 76.6%。"], "counter_evidence": ["用户增长不自动等于单位经济性改善。"], "source_gaps": ["价格/数量/组合/地区桥缺失。"] }, { "dimension": "industry_chain_position", "status": "unknown", "summary": "美图位于模型/算力与应用商店之上、消费者及专业创作者之前，但利润池和替代关系缺少可校验的独立全图。", "indicators": [ { "id": "upstream_process_customer_payer_and_substitute_map", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "公司披露能说明自身路线，尚不足以完成上游、流程、付费者和替代品全图。", "source_refs": ["F02", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["需加入模型厂商、应用商店、竞争产品与客户的 checksum-bound 证据。"] }, { "id": "profit_pool_and_inventory_credit_technology_risk", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "渠道分成与推理成本可见，但产业利润池、credit 经济性和技术替代速度不能量化。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "source_gaps": ["缺少同口径竞争者毛利、推理成本及分成数据。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03"], "positive_evidence": [], "counter_evidence": ["基础模型更强更便宜可能扩大需求，也可能把功能直接包入模型平台。"], "source_gaps": ["缺少独立产业链与利润池证据。"] }, { "dimension": "product_and_unit_economics", "status": "unknown", "summary": "付费数、订阅率、H1 ARPPU 方向、ARR 和部分成本可见，但留存、CAC、绝对 ARPPU、credits 毛利与增量利润率未形成单位经济性闭环。", "indicators": [ { "id": "price_volume_mix_and_incremental_economics", "status": "observed", "summary": "H1 披露 ARPPU 上升、credits 用量和分组收入，但仍不足以重建留存、获客和单位毛利。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F03", "F16"], "source_gaps": ["需要 ARPU、续费、CAC 回收期、credits 单位成本与增量毛利。"] }, { "id": "industry_denominator_scope_and_comparability", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "缺少可比公司同口径付费、收入、模型成本与利润分母。", "source_refs": [], "source_gaps": ["需建立 Adobe、Canva、模型平台及中国应用同口径对比。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F03", "F16"], "positive_evidence": ["2026H1 生产力付费人数同比增长 29.8%，AI 生产力 ARR 同比增长 47.8%，公司称 ARPPU 上升。"], "counter_evidence": ["增长可能伴随更高推理和渠道成本。"], "source_gaps": ["关键单位经济性指标未披露。"] }, { "dimension": "customers", "status": "unknown", "summary": "消费者、prosumer 与生产力用户的方向可识别，但留存、集中度及外部客户证据不足。", "indicators": [ { "id": "customer_channel_end_user_and_payer_separation", "status": "observed", "summary": "核心收入来自付费用户，渠道包括应用商店；广告客户构成另一付款方。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["地区与渠道付款链尚未逐项拆分。"] }, { "id": "concentration_retention_receivables_inventory_and_external_evidence", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "没有同口径 cohort 留存、客户集中度和独立客户访谈证据。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需要留存、流失、复购、广告客户集中度与外部用户证据。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F03"], "positive_evidence": ["付费人数与订阅率上升。"], "counter_evidence": ["累计付费人数不能回答续费质量。"], "source_gaps": ["客户留存、集中度与独立验证缺失。"] }, { "dimension": "suppliers", "status": "unknown", "summary": "应用商店、云、算力和第三方模型是关键输入，但集中度、替代成本及合同条款未披露到可量化程度。", "indicators": [ { "id": "critical_inputs_concentration_related_parties_and_substitution", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "关键输入类别可识别，具体供应商集中度和切换成本不可重建。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "source_gaps": ["需要云、模型、渠道及关联供应商集中度。"] }, { "id": "terms_prepayments_availability_and_cost_pass_through", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "缺少主要供应合同、预付款、可得性和成本传导条款。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需读取供应商合同与成本敏感性。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "positive_evidence": ["公司采用自有、开源与第三方能力的组合路线，理论上具备切换选项。"], "counter_evidence": ["渠道与模型平台仍可能掌握流量、定价和分发权。"], "source_gaps": ["供应商集中度与合同条款缺失。"] }, { "dimension": "competition_structure", "status": "unknown", "summary": "替代者包括通用模型、Adobe/Canva 等工作流平台及大量垂直应用，但缺少独立、同口径竞争证据。", "indicators": [ { "id": "entry_exit_capacity_price_and_substitution", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "模型降价降低应用成本也降低进入壁垒，净效应尚未量化。", "source_refs": ["F02", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["需竞争者价格、功能、用户迁移和淘汰数据。"] }, { "id": "competitor_customer_and_regulator_corroboration", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "当前 checksum-bound 资料以公司披露为主，独立竞争者、客户和监管证据不完整。", "source_refs": [], "source_gaps": ["需加入竞争者财报、商店历史序列、网站趋势和监管文件。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F02", "F03"], "positive_evidence": [], "counter_evidence": ["功能商品化与平台捆绑可能压缩独立应用价值。"], "source_gaps": ["独立竞争证据不足。"] }, { "dimension": "durable_moat", "status": "unknown", "summary": "用户规模、产品矩阵、审美数据和工作流可能形成优势，但持续性尚未由留存、定价权或独立迁移成本证明。", "indicators": [ { "id": "mechanism_economic_result_durability_and_direction", "status": "observed", "summary": "付费人数、核心收入和生产力用户增长是机制可能生效的经营结果。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F03"], "source_gaps": ["缺少 cohort 留存、提价后流失和分产品增量回报。"] }, { "id": "strongest_falsifying_evidence", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "尚无独立证据排除模型平台直接包住编辑/生成工作流的反方路径。", "source_refs": ["F02"], "source_gaps": ["需追踪功能重叠、用户迁移、ARPU、毛利和自然获客。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03"], "positive_evidence": ["付费增长和核心收入增长持续。"], "counter_evidence": ["基础模型进步可能把差异化压缩为营销与分发竞争。"], "source_gaps": ["护城河持续性尚未被单位经济性和独立证据验证。"] }, { "dimension": "revenue_quality", "status": "unknown", "summary": "收入与现金流总体增长，但预收、渠道、期末时点和产品范围变化仍需完整桥接。", "indicators": [ { "id": "revenue_receivables_contract_assets_returns_and_cash", "status": "observed", "summary": "年报提供收入、经营现金流及资产负债表项目，支持基础现金转换检查。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["尚未将合同负债、应收和现金变动逐页复算。"] }, { "id": "acquisition_period_end_channel_and_recognition_distortion", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "当前档案不能排除订阅预收、渠道结算及期末时点对现金流的暂时抬升。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需季度合同负债、渠道结算、收入口径与并购范围桥。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01"], "positive_evidence": ["FY2025 经营现金流高于法定利润。"], "counter_evidence": ["订阅预收和营运资本顺风未必可持续。"], "source_gaps": ["现金流时点与确认质量桥不完整。"] }, { "dimension": "earnings_quality", "status": "applicable", "summary": "法定总归母、持续经营归母、公司调整后归母及扣除股权激励的研究交叉口径已分列。", "indicators": [ { "id": "reported_to_normalized_parent_earnings_bridge", "status": "observed", "summary": "FY2025 总法定归母 582.900、持续经营归母 697.563、公司调整后归母 965.347 百万元人民币可分列。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["部分调整项仍需页码级重算。"] }, { "id": "tax_attribution_scope_and_adjustment_disagreement", "status": "observed", "summary": "终止经营、股权激励、可转债会计和金融资产波动造成分母差异；研究将股权激励视为股东成本。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["税后影响和每项归属需在页码级 evidence index 复核。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01"], "positive_evidence": ["多个利润分母已明确，不以单一调整口径替代法定利润。"], "counter_evidence": ["公司调整后利润包含终止经营并加回股权激励，不能单独称为真实盈利。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "cash_conversion", "status": "unknown", "summary": "FY2025 CFO 与粗略 CFO-capex 可重算，但可分配现金、受限现金和正常营运资本仍不明确。", "indicators": [ { "id": "profit_operating_cash_and_distributable_cash_bridge", "status": "observed", "summary": "FY2025 CFO 约 1,257、粗略 CFO-capex 约 1,209 百万元人民币，但后者只是上限代理。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["维护性投入与正常营运资本未单独披露。"] }, { "id": "factoring_payment_restricted_cash_and_sector_scope", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "受限现金、支付安排与可分配现金没有形成完整桥。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需逐页检查受限资金、付款服务、租赁及离岸可分配性。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01"], "positive_evidence": ["经营现金流显著为正。"], "counter_evidence": ["当期现金转换可能受订阅预收和营运资本时点影响。"], "source_gaps": ["可分配现金桥缺失。"] }, { "dimension": "working_capital", "status": "unknown", "summary": "报表项目存在，但持续融资属性与暂时现金释放尚未拆开。", "indicators": [ { "id": "receivables_inventory_payables_prepayments_and_contract_balances", "status": "observed", "summary": "年报包含应收、应付、预付款和合同相关项目。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["尚未形成多期周转天数与合同负债桥。"] }, { "id": "sustainable_financing_vs_temporary_cash_release", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "无法把订阅预收带来的结构性融资与一次性期末现金释放分开。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需要季度序列和正常化营运资本模型。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01"], "positive_evidence": ["订阅模式可能带来负营运资本。"], "counter_evidence": ["负营运资本在增速下降时可能反向释放压力。"], "source_gaps": ["缺少季度营运资本与增长归因。"] }, { "dimension": "capital_intensity", "status": "unknown", "summary": "实物资本开支低，但研发、推理、渠道和获客是经济资本；维护与增长部分无法可靠拆分。", "indicators": [ { "id": "maintenance_vs_growth_investment_range", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "公司未单列维护性资本开支、维护性研发和维持留存所需营销。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "source_gaps": ["需要维护/增长研发、推理、营销与资本开支区间。"] }, { "id": "capex_capacity_utilization_and_competitive_requirements", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "数字业务不以厂房产能衡量，但算力利用率、推理负载和竞争性投入未量化。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "source_gaps": ["需算力/API 用量、单位成本和模型升级投入。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "positive_evidence": ["实物资本开支相对 CFO 较低。"], "counter_evidence": ["把研发和获客全部当费用可能低估维持竞争位置的经济资本。"], "source_gaps": ["维护性经济投入未披露。"] }, { "dimension": "returns_on_capital", "status": "applicable", "summary": "FY2021–FY2025 ROIC 筛查代理已完成，并把现金、借款、可转债、租赁、少数股东权益与资本配置分列；当平均经营资本下降时不伪造增量 ROIC。", "indicators": [ { "id": "multiperiod_roe_roic_and_incremental_returns", "status": "observed", "summary": "ROIC 筛查代理为 FY2021 -7.9%、FY2022 -6.9%、FY2023 14.2%、FY2024 26.8%、FY2025 66.7%；FY2024→FY2025 平均经营资本下降，因此增量 ROIC 明确记为 not_determinable。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F09", "F10", "MT_AR2021", "MT_AR2022"], "source_gaps": ["筛查值不是公司披露指标；仍需商誉、租赁、超额现金和收购口径敏感性。"] }, { "id": "leverage_buyback_cycle_and_accounting_decomposition", "status": "observed", "summary": "五年投入资本代理与回购、库存股、股息、可转债和利润口径并列，避免把净现金融资、分母收缩或一次性会计项误写成经营回报。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F06", "F07"], "source_gaps": ["尚缺逐项 ROE 分解、无形资产调整 ROIC 与并购项目回报率。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F06", "F07", "F09", "F10", "MT_AR2021", "MT_AR2022"], "positive_evidence": ["ROIC 筛查代理从连续负值转正并上升，方向与核心收入和经营现金流改善一致。"], "counter_evidence": ["FY2025 的高筛查值受低资本基数、现金/融资处理及利润正常化影响，不能直接当作可持续增量回报。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "balance_sheet_survival", "status": "unknown", "summary": "现金与流动金融资源较高，但包含可转债融资；到期偿付、受限资金与压力情景仍需拆分。", "indicators": [ { "id": "debt_liquidity_covenants_guarantees_pledges_and_off_balance", "status": "observed", "summary": "年报及可转债条款提供流动资源、债务性质、到期和潜在转换信息。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F07", "F14"], "source_gaps": ["担保、受限资金、租赁及全部表外承诺需页码级复核。"] }, { "id": "adverse_scenario_financing_need", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "低股价不转换情景下的 2028 偿付与再融资压力尚未形成现金流压力表。", "source_refs": ["F07", "F14"], "source_gaps": ["需要到期表、最低现金、压力 CFO 和资本回报假设。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F07", "F14"], "positive_evidence": ["FY2025 年末现金与流动金融资源约 4,937 百万元人民币。"], "counter_evidence": ["其中包含 US$250m 可转债募集资金，不能全部视为发行前积累的自由净现金。"], "source_gaps": ["压力融资与完整净现金桥仍需页码级复核。"] }, { "dimension": "capital_allocation", "status": "applicable", "summary": "研发、股息、回购、库存股、创始人买入与可转债已进入同一资本配置账本。", "indicators": [ { "id": "reinvestment_ma_dividend_buyback_issuance_debt_and_cash_ledger", "status": "observed", "summary": "FY2025 研发、股息、HKD 3 亿回购授权、实际回购及 US$250m 可转债均有正式资料。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F06", "F07"], "source_gaps": ["历史并购回报与每笔回购成本尚未做多年序列。"] }, { "id": "diluted_per_share_outcomes_and_opportunity_cost", "status": "observed", "summary": "回购减少流通股，但可转债、股权激励和库存股再发行可抵消每股效果。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "F07"], "source_gaps": ["未归属激励及库存股未来用途仍缺同日全摊薄数据。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F06", "F07"], "positive_evidence": ["回购已有执行，创始人另有现金买入。"], "counter_evidence": ["授权金额不等于执行价值，回购若被更大规模摊薄抵消则不提高每股经济价值。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "management", "status": "unknown", "summary": "管理层路线与部分结果可以对照，但长期承诺兑现、薪酬、继任和坦诚度没有完整评分卡。", "indicators": [ { "id": "dated_commitments_vs_outcomes", "status": "observed", "summary": "订阅化、生产力产品和不从零训练通用基模的路线，可与 FY2025、2026Q1 和 2026H1 初步经营结果对照。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F16"], "source_gaps": ["需建立逐年承诺、日期、目标与结果账本。"] }, { "id": "incentives_compensation_succession_insider_actions_and_candor", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "创始人买入和股权激励可见，但完整薪酬激励、继任和不利信息披露评分未完成。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F05"], "source_gaps": ["需要薪酬、绩效条件、继任计划和历史不利披露复核。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F05", "F16"], "positive_evidence": ["战略路线与付费/生产力增长方向一致。"], "counter_evidence": ["管理层叙事不能替代留存、CAC、地区 ARPU 和分产品毛利。"], "source_gaps": ["长期承诺评分卡与继任资料不完整。"] }, { "dimension": "governance_and_related_parties", "status": "unknown", "summary": "年报包含治理和关联方披露，但定价公平、少数股东保护与独立反对意见未形成证据闭环。", "indicators": [ { "id": "related_sales_purchases_loans_guarantees_and_asset_transfers", "status": "observed", "summary": "年报是关联交易、贷款、担保及资产转移的主要正式来源。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["尚未逐项提取金额、定价与期末余额。"] }, { "id": "pricing_minority_fairness_oversight_and_dissent", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "现有 combined 资料不能独立评价关联定价、少数股东公平性与董事会异议。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需关联交易条款、独董意见、审计委员会与表决记录。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01"], "positive_evidence": ["存在正式年度治理披露。"], "counter_evidence": ["形式合规不自动证明交易对少数股东公平。"], "source_gaps": ["关联方金额与公平性测试未完成。"] }, { "dimension": "accounting_and_audit", "status": "applicable", "summary": "连续三年审计年报可比，但 2025 终止经营重列和调整后利润需要保留口径冲突。", "indicators": [ { "id": "audit_kam_standard_policy_and_restatement", "status": "observed", "summary": "FY2023-FY2025 审计年报提供会计政策、KAM 和 2025 终止经营重列基础。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F09", "F10"], "source_gaps": ["尚未把所有 KAM 页码写入公开 evidence index。"] }, { "id": "statement_reproduction_and_conflict_preservation", "status": "observed", "summary": "档案同时保留 reported total、continuing operations、公司 adjusted 与研究 adjusted 口径。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F09", "F10"], "source_gaps": [] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F09", "F10"], "positive_evidence": ["主要报表来源为审计年报，口径差异未被抹平。"], "counter_evidence": ["2026H1 初步管理账虽给出利润增速方向，仍未经审核或审阅，且不含正式毛利、费用、现金流与稀释 EPS 桥。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "tax_and_legal", "status": "unknown", "summary": "年报提供税务与法律披露，但 AI 内容、隐私、版权、VIE 与平台合规尾部风险未完成独立核验。", "indicators": [ { "id": "effective_deferred_and_uncertain_tax", "status": "observed", "summary": "年报包含所得税、递延税项与税务附注。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["尚未形成有效税率与不确定税务头寸多年桥。"] }, { "id": "litigation_penalties_compliance_and_tail_exposure", "status": "not_disclosed", "summary": "现有 checksum-bound 证据不足以独立排除重大 AI、版权、隐私、VIE 和平台下架风险。", "source_refs": ["F01"], "source_gaps": ["需要监管、诉讼、应用商店与数据合规证据。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01"], "positive_evidence": ["审计年报提供基础税务和或有事项披露。"], "counter_evidence": ["生成式 AI 法规与版权责任仍快速演化。"], "source_gaps": ["法律和监管尾部风险未独立核验。"] }, { "dimension": "per_share_economics", "status": "applicable", "summary": "basic、审计 diluted、CB-only 与保守 all-in fully diluted 四层股数已桥接；4,973.396 百万股是包含奖励重叠风险的上限，不冒充审计 EPS 分母。", "indicators": [ { "id": "basic_diluted_and_fully_diluted_share_reconciliation", "status": "observed", "summary": "期末已发行 4,586.179、期权 1.352、保守奖励 50.351、CB 最大 335.514 百万股，得到不转换 4,637.882 和 all-in 4,973.396 百万股的保守 ceiling。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "F07", "F14"], "source_gaps": ["奖励可能由已发行受托股或市场购股履约，且 2026-06-26 缺同日奖励余额；需下一期消除重复。"] }, { "id": "per_share_growth_distribution_issuance_and_repurchase_outcomes", "status": "observed", "summary": "回购、库存股、股息和可转债对每股价值的方向性影响可识别。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F06", "F07"], "source_gaps": ["多年 owner earnings/fully diluted share 序列尚未完成。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F06", "F07", "F14"], "positive_evidence": ["新授权下已执行回购，四层股份桥使回购与潜在摊薄可以在每股层面并列。"], "counter_evidence": ["可转债最大新增 335.5 百万股，高于当前库存股规模。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "valuation", "status": "applicable", "summary": "价格、FY2025 多利润分母、FY2026 条件化盈利代理、净现金类资产、十年反推和三情景 DCF 已分列；H1 正式现金流、SBC 与摊薄桥仍为 provisional。", "indicators": [ { "id": "currency_consistent_value_range_assumptions_and_dates", "status": "observed", "summary": "估值以 HKD 4.75、2026-08-07 为价格锚，CNY 盈利通过 checksum-bound 的 0.8660 CNY/HKD 快照换算。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F16", "P08", "P04"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "id": "reverse_expectations_sensitivities_and_cross_check", "status": "observed", "summary": "FY2025 法定、持续经营、公司调整及 owner earnings 倍数，FY2026 条件化代理、十年反推与下行/基础/上行情景并列。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F16", "P08", "P04"], "source_gaps": ["缺少 look-ahead-safe 历史估值与市场一致预期。"] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F16", "P08", "P04"], "positive_evidence": ["当前价格接近基础 DCF 情景；基础价值差约 6.1%，不足以构成明确安全边际。"], "counter_evidence": ["上行情景超过初始转股价，必须纳入转换摊薄和负债移除。"], "source_gaps": [] }, { "dimension": "disconfirming_evidence", "status": "applicable", "summary": "独立 agent red-team 已建立可观察反方路径和 2026H1 复核日，但仍需人工审阅。", "indicators": [ { "id": "independent_strongest_counter_thesis", "status": "observed", "summary": "最强反方是模型平台把生成与编辑直接包入通用入口，使美图的差异化、留存和毛利同步下降。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F07"], "source_gaps": ["缺少独立竞品用户迁移和 cohort 数据。"] }, { "id": "observable_invalidation_next_evidence_and_review_date", "status": "observed", "summary": "下一正式复核点为 2026-08-26 H1；条件包括核心增速、付费、毛利、现金流及全摊薄每股经济性。", "source_refs": ["F03", "F08"], "source_gaps": [] } ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F07", "F08"], "positive_evidence": ["反方机制、可观察指标与日期已明确。"], "counter_evidence": ["反方研究尚未获得人工签名，也未补齐独立客户/竞争者证据。"], "source_gaps": [] } ], "earnings_quality_bridge": { "period": "FY2025", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "reported_parent_net_income_total": 582.9, "reported_parent_net_income_continuing": 697.563, "company_adjusted_parent_earnings": 965.347, "adjustments": [ { "label": "share_based_compensation", "operator": "subtract_from_company_adjusted", "amount": 118.496, "tax_basis": "company_reconciliation_basis", "rationale": "股权激励对股东具有经济成本，不因公司调整口径加回而消失。", "source_refs": ["F01"] }, { "label": "convertible_bond_share_payment_expense", "operator": "separate_non_recurring_candidate", "amount": 511.8, "tax_basis": "company_reconciliation_basis", "rationale": "一次性会计费用可与经营盈利分开，但对应债务与潜在摊薄必须保留。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F07"] }, { "label": "fair_value_movements", "operator": "separate_from_core_operations", "amount": -481.1, "tax_basis": "company_reconciliation_basis", "rationale": "金融资产及优先股公允价值波动不作为核心经营收益。", "source_refs": ["F01"] } ], "research_adjusted_less_sbc": 846.851, "formula": "965.347 - 118.496 = 846.851 million CNY; this is a cross-check, not final owner earnings.", "disagreement": "公司调整后归母包含终止经营且加回股权激励；研究不把该口径单独定义为真实盈利。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F07"] }, "capital_allocation": { "status": "reviewed_with_open_per_share_bridge", "period": "FY2023 to 2026-06-26", "uses": [ "research_and_product_reinvestment", "dividends", "share_repurchases", "treasury_shares", "share_based_compensation", "convertible_financing" ], "per_share_test": "回购只有在低于保守内在价值、资产负债表安全且全摊薄每股 owner earnings 上升时才创造价值；创始人买入是利益一致信号，不是估值结论。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F04", "F05", "F06", "F07", "F14"] }, "balance_sheet_quality": { "status": "scenario_reconciliation", "currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "net_cash_bridge": { "as_of": "2025-12-31", "cash_and_liquid_financial_resources": 4936.768, "borrowings": 20.0, "lease_liabilities": 31.236, "subsidiary_convertible_redeemable_preferred_shares": 186.966, "alibaba_cb_carrying_value": 1406.692, "alibaba_cb_principal_claim": 1757.2, "reported_carrying_value_net_cash": 3291.874, "unconverted_principal_redemption_net_cash": 2941.366, "full_conversion_net_cash": 4698.566, "formulas": { "reported_carrying_value": "4,936.768 - 20.000 - 31.236 - 186.966 - 1,406.692 = 3,291.874", "unconverted_principal_redemption": "4,936.768 - 20.000 - 31.236 - 186.966 - 1,757.200 = 2,941.366", "full_conversion": "4,936.768 - 20.000 - 31.236 - 186.966 = 4,698.566" }, "source_refs": ["F01", "F07", "F14"], "data_artifact": "data/net-cash-bridge.csv", "limitations": [ "4,936.768 百万元包含阿里可转债募集资金，不能全部视为发行前积累的自由现金。", "本金偿付情景尚未加入未来票息、违约利息、税务与汇率变动。", "完全转换情景必须与对应转换股数配对，不能移除债务后继续使用旧股数。" ] }, "stress_note": "FY2026H1 后需用最新现金流、债务账面值、受限资金和到期表重建，而不是沿用 FY2025 点时值。" }, "owner_earnings": { "status": "calculated", "currency": "HKD", "bridge": { "period": "FY2025", "reported_currency": "CNY", "unit": "million", "continuing_parent_profit_cny": 697.563, "less_fvtpl_and_preference_share_fair_value_gains_cny": 481.106, "add_goodwill_and_intangible_impairment_cny": 96.352, "add_associate_and_joint_venture_impairment_cny": 2.125, "add_alibaba_cb_ifrs2_issuance_expense_cny": 511.811, "add_tax_effects_of_normalising_adjustments_cny": 123.075, "less_other_one_off_gains_cny": 8.943, "employee_share_based_compensation_adjustment_cny": 0.0, "normalised_continuing_earnings_cny": 940.877, "depreciation_and_amortisation_cny": 83.875, "maintenance_capex_low_base_high_cny": [83.875, 66.871, 49.867], "normalised_working_capital_benefit_low_base_high_cny": [0.0, 0.0, 49.647], "research_owner_earnings_range_cny": [940.877, 1024.532], "translation_rate_cny_per_hkd": 0.8660, "translation_status": "checksum_bound_official_bank_quote", "maintenance_capex": "not_separately_disclosed", "normal_working_capital_need": "not_separately_disclosed", "source_refs": ["F01", "F07", "P04"], "data_artifact": "data/owner-earnings-bridge.csv" }, "range": [ { "case": "low", "value": 1086.463048, "value_cny_million": 940.877, "value_hkd_million": 1086.463048, "formula": "940.877 + 83.875 - 83.875 + 0 = CNY 940.877m" }, { "case": "base", "value": 1106.098152, "value_cny_million": 957.881, "value_hkd_million": 1106.098152, "formula": "940.877 + 83.875 - 66.871 + 0 = CNY 957.881m" }, { "case": "high", "value": 1183.062356, "value_cny_million": 1024.532, "value_hkd_million": 1183.062356, "formula": "940.877 + 83.875 - 49.867 + 49.647 = CNY 1,024.532m" } ], "limitations": [ "CNY 940.877–1,024.532 百万元是研究区间，不是公司指引或市场一致预期。", "员工股份支付已经在 IFRS 利润中列支，研究不加回；阿里 CB IFRS 2 一次性发行费用只从经营 run-rate 中剔除，债务和稀释影响仍保留。", "公司未单列持续经营维护性资本开支、维护性研发及正常营运资本，低/基础/高情景分别采用显式假设。", "0.8660 CNY/HKD 来自中国银行 2026-08-04 10:15:36 快照，已进入 checksum-bound v2 source_refs；其日期比价格锚点晚一个工作日。", "集团 D&A 与营运资本包含后来终止业务，持续经营拆分没有披露。" ] }, "pe_matrix": [ { "label": "reported_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "eps": 0.1488101662, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "reported_total_parent_profit_per_current_share_fx_translated", "formula": "HKD 4.75 / (CNY 582.900m / 4,523.17678m shares / 0.8660 CNY per HKD)", "pe": 31.9198622139, "earnings_yield": 0.0313284560, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "medium", "limitations": ["含终止经营与可转债会计噪音；使用当前点时流通股而非 FY2025 加权平均稀释股。"] }, { "label": "reported_ttm", "status": "unavailable", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "eps": null, "eps_period": "TTM to 2026H1 unavailable", "eps_type": "reported_diluted", "pe": null, "reason": "2026H1 预告只给利润增速范围，没有正式报表、持续经营桥或稀释 EPS，无法可靠重建 TTM 分母。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F03", "F16", "P08"], "confidence": "unavailable", "limitations": ["FY2025 是当前最近的完整利润分母。"] }, { "label": "continuing_operations_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "eps": 0.1780828031, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "continuing_IFRS_parent_profit_per_current_share_fx_translated", "formula": "HKD 4.75 / (CNY 697.563m / 4,523.17678m shares / 0.8660 CNY per HKD)", "pe": 26.6729853569, "earnings_yield": 0.0374911164, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "medium", "limitations": ["持续经营口径仍含可转债与投资公允价值波动；使用当前点时股数。"] }, { "label": "company_adjusted_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "eps": 0.2464461271, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "company_adjusted_parent_profit_per_current_share_fx_translated", "formula": "HKD 4.75 / (CNY 965.347m / 4,523.17678m shares / 0.8660 CNY per HKD)", "pe": 19.2739892334, "earnings_yield": 0.0518833952, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "medium", "limitations": ["公司定义口径包含终止经营并加回股权激励，不能单独代表 owner earnings。"] }, { "label": "adjusted_less_sbc_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "eps": 0.2161949529, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "research_adjusted_less_sbc_per_current_share_fx_translated", "formula": "HKD 4.75 / (CNY 846.851m / 4,523.17678m shares / 0.8660 CNY per HKD)", "pe": 21.9709106850, "earnings_yield": 0.0455147269, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "medium_low", "limitations": ["这是公司调整口径扣回股权激励的交叉检查，仍不是完整维护性投入后的 owner earnings。"] }, { "label": "owner_earnings_low_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "earnings_cny_million": 940.877, "eps": 0.2401991126, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "research_owner_earnings_low", "formula": "CNY market capitalisation 18,684.429m / CNY owner earnings 940.877m", "pe": 19.7752604055, "earnings_yield": 0.0505682342, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "medium_low", "limitations": ["研究区间，不是 reported/consensus PE；维护性投入取 D&A，不计营运资本 float。"] }, { "label": "owner_earnings_base_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "earnings_cny_million": 957.881, "eps": 0.2445401111, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "research_owner_earnings_base", "formula": "CNY market capitalisation 18,684.429m / CNY owner earnings 957.881m", "pe": 19.4242162487, "earnings_yield": 0.0514821287, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "medium_low", "limitations": ["研究区间，不是 reported/consensus PE；维护性 capex 取 D&A 与 cash capex 中点。"] }, { "label": "owner_earnings_high_fy", "status": "calculated", "price": 4.75, "currency": "HKD", "price_as_of": "2026-08-07", "earnings_cny_million": 1024.532, "eps": 0.2615556307, "eps_period": "FY2025", "eps_type": "research_owner_earnings_high", "formula": "CNY market capitalisation 18,684.429m / CNY owner earnings 1,024.532m", "pe": 18.1605725195, "earnings_yield": 0.0550643433, "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"], "confidence": "low", "limitations": ["研究区间，不是 reported/consensus PE；只计三年中位营运资本收益的一半，仍可能反转。"] } ], "forward_scenarios": { "currency": "HKD", "price_anchor": 4.75, "scenarios": [ { "scenario": "bear", "status": "calculated_pe", "forecast_eps": 0.227524, "implied_pe_at_current_price": 20.8769, "earnings_denominator": "FY2026 adjusted-profit proxy less assumed employee SBC", "capital_structure": "unconverted_conservative_awards_ceiling", "assumptions": [ "H1 调整后归母取公司 36%–40% 预告的低端，即人民币 6.357 亿元。", "H2 调整后归母比 2025H2 下降 10%，全年 SBC 经济成本取人民币 1.70 亿元。", "D&A 约等于维护性投入，不给营运资本正向信用；2026-08-26 后必须用正式现金流重建。" ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F06", "F08", "F16", "P08", "P04"] }, { "scenario": "base", "status": "calculated_pe", "forecast_eps": 0.272023, "implied_pe_at_current_price": 17.4618, "earnings_denominator": "FY2026 adjusted-profit proxy less assumed employee SBC", "capital_structure": "unconverted_conservative_awards_ceiling", "assumptions": [ "H1 调整后归母取公司区间中点人民币 6.451 亿元。", "H2 调整后归母比 2025H2 增长 20%，全年 SBC 经济成本取人民币 1.50 亿元。", "这是一年盈利能力区间，不是公司指引、市场一致预期或完整 owner earnings。" ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F06", "F08", "F16", "P08", "P04"] }, { "scenario": "upside", "status": "calculated_pe", "forecast_eps": 0.277827, "implied_pe_at_current_price": 17.0970, "earnings_denominator": "FY2026 adjusted-profit proxy less assumed employee SBC", "capital_structure": "full_conversion_including_maturity_interest", "assumptions": [ "H1 调整后归母取公司区间高端人民币 6.544 亿元。", "H2 调整后归母比 2025H2 增长 35%，全年 SBC 经济成本取人民币 1.30 亿元。", "采用含到期利息的最大 CB 转换股份和奖励保守上限；不把 ARR 增速机械外推为利润增速。" ], "source_refs": ["F01", "F02", "F03", "F06", "F07", "F08", "F16", "P08", "P04"] } ], "status_note": "H1 预告首次允许构建 range-only 的一年盈利能力代理；正式毛利、SBC、CFO、净现金与同日摊薄股数未披露，因此不能升级为完整 owner earnings。", "data_artifact": "data/forward-economic-earnings-scenarios.csv" }, "intrinsic_value_scenarios": { "currency": "HKD", "scenarios": [ { "scenario": "downside", "status": "calculated", "capital_structure": "unconverted_principal_redemption", "discount_rate_pct": 13.0, "terminal_growth_pct": 0.0, "intrinsic_value_per_share": 2.48, "starting_owner_earnings_cny_bn": 0.91383, "five_year_growth_pct": 0.0, "net_cash_like_cny_bn": 2.941366, "fully_diluted_shares_bn": 4.63788188, "formula": "Five-year DCF starting from the FY2026 bear economic-earnings proxy with 0% growth, 0% terminal growth and 13% discount rate; unconverted principal-redemption net cash; conservative non-CB award ceiling; CNY/HKD 0.8660.", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "F14", "F16", "P08", "P04"], "limitations": ["研究敏感性，不是公司指引；未转换偿付额仍受未来利息与汇率影响。"] }, { "scenario": "base", "status": "calculated", "capital_structure": "unconverted_principal_redemption", "discount_rate_pct": 11.0, "terminal_growth_pct": 3.0, "intrinsic_value_per_share": 5.04, "starting_owner_earnings_cny_bn": 1.092554, "five_year_growth_pct": 8.0, "net_cash_like_cny_bn": 2.941366, "fully_diluted_shares_bn": 4.63788188, "formula": "Five-year DCF starting from the FY2026 base economic-earnings proxy with 8% growth, 3% terminal growth and 11% discount rate; unconverted principal-redemption net cash; conservative non-CB award ceiling; CNY/HKD 0.8660.", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "F14", "F16", "P08", "P04"], "limitations": ["对维护性投入、留存、毛利、未来 CB 偿付和 FX 高度敏感。"] }, { "scenario": "upside", "status": "calculated", "capital_structure": "full_conversion_including_maturity_interest", "discount_rate_pct": 11.0, "terminal_growth_pct": 4.0, "intrinsic_value_per_share": 7.31, "starting_owner_earnings_cny_bn": 1.19659, "five_year_growth_pct": 14.0, "net_cash_like_cny_bn": 4.698566, "fully_diluted_shares_bn": 4.973395796, "formula": "Five-year DCF starting from the FY2026 upside economic-earnings proxy with 14% growth, 4% terminal growth and 11% discount rate; CB debt removed; maximum disclosed conversion shares including maturity interest plus conservative award ceiling; CNY/HKD 0.8660.", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "F07", "F16", "P08", "P04"], "limitations": ["奖励余额与已发行/受托股份可能重叠，因此 4.973396 billion 是保守股数上限；实际转股价和时点可变化。"] } ], "scenario_policy": "这些数值把 H1 预告转换成资本结构一致的透明敏感性，不是概率加权结论、目标价或交易指令；正式中报、维护性投入、FX 与奖励重叠仍使结果保持 range_only。" }, "historical_valuation": { "status": "unavailable", "metric": "look_ahead_safe_historical_pe", "reason": "现有档案没有按历史日期冻结当时已知 EPS、股本和重列口径，不能用事后 FY2025 信息回填历史 P/E。", "current_cross_checks": { "reported_total_fy_pe": 31.9199, "continuing_ifrs_fy_pe": 26.6730, "company_adjusted_fy_pe": 19.2740, "owner_earnings_range_pe": [18.1606, 19.7753] }, "look_ahead_control": "每个历史估值点必须只使用当日已发布的报表、当时股本与当日价格。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F06", "P08", "P04"] }, "market_positioning": { "status": "post_h1_update_repricing_with_short_pressure_easing", "as_of": "2026-08-08", "price_state": { "last_completed_close_hkd": 4.75, "last_completed_close_date": "2026-08-07", "latest_intraday_quote_hkd": null, "latest_intraday_quote_time": null, "twenty_session_sma_hkd": 4.3055, "sixty_session_sma_hkd": 4.4233, "two_hundred_session_sma_hkd": 6.0792, "sixty_session_typical_price_vwap_hkd": 4.5719, "post_update_reaction": { "announcement_released_after_close": "2026-07-30T17:48:00+08:00", "first_full_session_return_pct": 10.28, "t_minus_1_to_2026_08_07_pct": 10.98, "hstech_same_window_pct": 1.13, "abnormal_window_pct": 9.85 }, "interpretation": "价格已升至 20/60 日均值和 60 日成交量加权成本代理之上，但仍低于 200 日均值；这是 H1 经营预告后的预期重估，不是长期护城河或安全边际已经被证明。" }, "reportable_short_position": { "latest_reporting_date": "2026-07-24", "latest_shares_mn": 347.837738, "approx_pct_of_2026_06_26_non_treasury_issued_shares": 7.69, "change_from_2026_06_26_pct": -27.96, "change_from_selected_2026_04_30_peak_pct": -43.52, "change_from_2026_07_17_pct": -2.81, "twenty_session_volume_cover_proxy_days": 4.57, "interpretation": "空头存量仍大，但到 7 月 24 日继续边际下降；7 月 30 日预告后的上涨可能同时包含盈利预期上修和部分空头回补，公开数据不能拆分两者。" }, "short_selling_turnover": { "june_completed_sessions_weighted_ratio_pct": 11.94, "july_3_to_24_completed_sessions_weighted_ratio_pct": 8.91, "july_27_incomplete_half_day_ratio_pct": 30.503, "interpretation": "7 月已完成时段的卖空成交强度低于 6 月；7 月 27 日半日比率跳升，但不完整单日不能覆盖 SFC 周度净空仓下降趋势。" }, "likely_price_formation": [ "7 月 30 日预告首次把付费、ARPU 和核心收入增长连接到 36%–40% 的调整后利润增长与至少 35% 的 IFRS 利润增长。", "首个反应日上涨 10.3%，到 8 月 3 日相对公告前收盘上涨 11.4%；但 7 月 29 日已提前上涨 13.1%，不能把全段涨幅单因果归于公告。", "公司回购与创始人增持形成有限需求，SFC 须申报净空仓下降可能放大反应；两者都不能替代正式中报。", "当前价格已接近更新后的基础 DCF，市场从等待证据转向部分预付经营改善；8 月 26 日必须验证毛利、CFO、SBC、现金与净股数。" ], "data_artifact": "data/price-short-positioning.csv", "source_refs": ["F05", "F06", "F08", "F16", "F17", "P08", "R10", "R11", "R12"], "limitations": [ "SFC 数据有阈值和发布滞后，且可能包括对冲。", "没有公开、同日、可核验的借券费率、可借券库存或 free-float-adjusted short-interest percentile。", "ET Net 每日卖空成交是二级呈现，不能当成净空仓变动。", "价格区间和均线只描述市场状态，不产生证券操作指令。" ] }, "price_move_attribution": { "status": "monitor_summary_only", "as_of": "2026-08-08", "method": "现有 event-price-reactions.csv 对公告记录 T-1/T0/T+1/T+5，并以同日恒生科技指数作基准；因重叠事件和小盘流动性，因果置信度保持条件化。", "current_price_hkd": 4.75, "current_price_status": "Valuation anchor is the 2026-08-07 completed close; no weekend or incomplete intraday quote is used.", "short_term_focus": [ "2026-08-26 H1 正式业绩", "AI 应用板块轮动与海外映射", "模型降价/开源与工作流平台功能发布", "回购、库存股、可转债与全摊薄股数变化" ], "source_refs": ["F03", "F04", "F06", "F08", "F16", "P08", "R10", "R11", "R12"] }, "moat_evidence": { "positive_evidence": [ "FY2025 核心产品收入 2,954.033 百万元人民币，占持续经营收入约 76.6%。", "2026H1 总付费用户超过 18.44 百万，生产力付费 2.35 百万同比增长 29.8%；AI 生产力 ARR 约 6.20 亿元，同比增长 47.8%。", "2026H1 核心业务收入同比增长 30.9%，调整后归母预计增长 36%–40%，初步显示经营杠杆；该预告未经审阅。", "多产品矩阵、审美工作流与用户行为数据可能提高发现需求和跨产品复用效率。" ], "counter_evidence": [ "公司没有经独立证据验证的通用前沿基础模型，依赖开源、第三方及合作伙伴能力。", "基础模型能力提升和降价既降低推理成本，也降低进入壁垒，并可能把生成/编辑直接包进平台。", "缺少 cohort 留存、CAC、地区 ARPU、分产品毛利与用户迁移数据，无法证明定价权和切换成本。" ], "missing_tests": [ "同口径 12/24 个月付费 cohort 留存、复购与提价后流失。", "分产品和地区的 ARPU、CAC 回收期、credits 单位毛利与自然新增占比。", "模型平台功能发布后，美图各 App 的排名、网站流量、付费与毛利的 4–12 周联动。", "独立客户/创作者访谈与竞品 win-loss 证据。" ] }, "red_team": [ { "risk": "模型平台直接替代最后一公里应用", "mechanism": "通用模型把生成、编辑、模板和 agent 工作流放进同一入口，用户无需再为独立 App 付费。", "source_refs": ["F02", "F03", "F16"], "invalidation_test": "跟踪主要模型/工作流平台发布后的付费净增、续费、ARPU、毛利及自然获客；若核心增速与毛利连续恶化，反方增强。" }, { "risk": "增长被渠道费、推理成本和股权激励吸收", "mechanism": "收入和付费上升，但新增毛利流向应用商店、云/模型供应商和员工摊薄。", "source_refs": ["F01", "F02"], "invalidation_test": "H1 及后续两期同时复核核心收入、毛利率、销售成本、SBC 与 fully diluted owner earnings per share。" }, { "risk": "可转债在不同股价情景改变风险形态", "mechanism": "高于有效转股价时潜在摊薄增强；未转换到期时本金和利息形成现金偿付或再融资压力。", "source_refs": ["F07", "F14"], "invalidation_test": "每期更新有效转股价、转换股份、债务账面值、到期现金需求与转换后每股价值。" }, { "risk": "H1 预告把调整后利润增长误当成 owner earnings 已兑现", "mechanism": "预告给出利润增长区间和经营杠杆，但公司调整口径剔除 SBC 与投资公允价值，且没有毛利、CFO、净现金或同日摊薄股数；市场可能对不完整桥过度外推。", "source_refs": ["F03", "F08", "F16"], "invalidation_test": "以 2026-08-26 H1 正式财报把收入、毛利、费用、SBC、CFO、现金和完全摊薄股数桥接为每股 owner earnings。" } ], "gates": [ { "gate": "identity_and_source_integrity", "result": "provisional", "reason": "证券与主要官方源已校验，31 条关键事实已有页码/表名/行号/哈希；控制、NCI、关联方与长尾事实仍未全部闭环。" }, { "gate": "circle_of_competence", "result": "provisional", "reason": "订阅与广告业务可理解，模型/渠道利润池、客户留存和供应商依赖仍超出当前证据边界。" }, { "gate": "business_economics", "result": "inconclusive", "reason": "H1 核心收入、付费、ARR、ARPU 方向和利润杠杆均偏正，但 ARPU 金额、留存、CAC、credits 毛利、现金流和增量回报仍未闭环。" }, { "gate": "durable_moat", "result": "inconclusive", "reason": "用户规模与产品矩阵是正面信号，模型平台替代与缺少独立留存证据阻止耐久性结论。" }, { "gate": "management_and_capital_allocation", "result": "provisional", "reason": "回购、创始人买入、研发方向及保守全摊薄每股桥可见，但奖励/库存股履约重叠、继任与长期承诺评分仍未完成。" }, { "gate": "owner_earnings", "result": "range_only", "reason": "FY2025 CNY 940.877–1,024.532 百万元逐项桥和 FY2026 CNY 913.830–1,196.590 百万元盈利能力代理可用于敏感性；SBC 保留为成本且 FX 已冻结，但 H1 正式 CFO、维护性投入和正常营运资本仍缺失。" }, { "gate": "survival_and_balance_sheet", "result": "provisional", "reason": "流动资源较高但含可转债融资；负债扣减、受限资金及 2028 低转换情景压力表未完成。" }, { "gate": "intrinsic_value_and_margin_of_safety", "result": "range_only", "reason": "更新后的 HKD 2.48–7.31 情景跨度大，基础值 HKD5.04 只比 8 月 7 日收盘高约 6.1%；未转换偿债与完全转换已配对各自净现金和保守股数，但正式中报、奖励重叠和长期增长仍为 provisional。" }, { "gate": "decision_and_disconfirming_evidence", "result": "provisional", "reason": "路由为 verification_watchlist：H1 预告增强一年盈利证据，但十年每股复合能力、正式 owner earnings、安全边际和人工审阅仍未完成。" } ], "source_gaps": [ { "gap": "2026H1 预告给出利润增速范围，但没有正式毛利、费用、SBC、经营现金流、资产负债表或稀释 EPS。", "resolution": "2026-08-26 用正式中报建立收入 → 毛利 → IFRS/调整后利润 → SBC → CFO → owner earnings → fully diluted per-share 桥。" }, { "gap": "公司确认 H1 ARPU 上升，但没有披露 ARPU 金额、留存、CAC、分产品/地区毛利和 credits 单位经济性。", "resolution": "在正式中报、管理层问答和第三方产品序列中持续采集；未披露项保持 unknown。" }, { "gap": "全摊薄桥已给出期权、全部未归属奖励和 CB 的保守上限，但未解决奖励与已发行受托股/市场购股的重叠，且 2026-06-26 没有同日奖励余额。", "resolution": "用下一份股本回报和财报附注重建同日 basic/diluted/CB/all-in 四层股数并消除重复计算。" }, { "gap": "净现金桥已逐项覆盖借款、租赁、附属优先股、CB 账面值/本金和受限现金，但未来票息、FX 与 H1 更新尚未纳入。", "resolution": "2026H1 后按同一结构更新现金、债务、到期利息和转换状态。" }, { "gap": "价格锚点为 8 月 7 日收盘，0.8660 CNY/HKD 官方银行快照为 8 月 4 日 10:15，存在一个工作日日期差。", "resolution": "当前差异对结果不重大；正式中报重估时冻结价格、FX、股数和报表同一批次输入。" }, { "gap": "缺少独立竞争者、客户、供应商、App Store 历史排名与网站访问趋势的 checksum-bound 长序列。", "resolution": "将现有公开序列按日期、地区、产品和口径冻结，并与付费/收入财报点做相关而非因果验证。" } ], "invalidation_tests": [ { "test": "付费增长未转成经营利润", "trigger": "连续两个报告期核心收入/付费增长而毛利率、经营利润率或 CFO 明显走弱。", "next_evidence": "2026-08-26 H1 及下一份正式财报。" }, { "test": "模型平台替代增强", "trigger": "重大模型/工作流平台发布后 4–12 周，美图核心 App/网站趋势、付费净增和 ARPU 同时转弱。", "next_evidence": "按周产品序列与下一次经营更新。" }, { "test": "摊薄超过经营增长", "trigger": "fully diluted shares 增速持续高于 normalized owner earnings，导致每股区间下降。", "next_evidence": "下一份股本回报、股权激励附注和可转债公告。" }, { "test": "低转换情景变成偿付压力", "trigger": "接近到期时股价低于有效转股价，且净现金、CFO 或再融资条件不足以覆盖本金及利息。", "next_evidence": "每期债务到期表、现金流与转换公告。" }, { "test": "披露完整性恶化", "trigger": "再次出现重大延迟、未经批准披露、停牌、审计保留或关联交易补披露。", "next_evidence": "HKEX 公告与下一份审计/中期报告。" } ], "float_supply": { "status": "observable_proxy_not_regulatory_public_float", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "listing_line": "01357.HK", "non_treasury_outstanding": 4523176780, "observable_tradable_float_proxy": 3473880110, "observable_float_ratio": 0.7680177625, "dated_price_hkd": 4.75, "float_adjusted_market_cap_proxy_hkd": 16500930522.5, "adtv20_shares": 76118094.85, "float_turnover_per_day": 0.0219115492, "float_days_to_trade": 45.6380, "largest_known_supply_event": { "event": "Alibaba convertible bond if converted", "shares": 335513916, "share_of_float_proxy": 0.0965818927, "adtv20_days": 4.4078, "state": "if_converted_not_automatic" }, "data_artifacts": ["data/float-supply-bridge.csv", "data/share-supply-calendar.csv"], "limitations": ["Proxy subtracts disclosed founder blocks but is not HKEX regulatory public float.", "Active supply may be materially lower than the static proxy."] }, "review": { "human_review_required": true, "status": "needs_human_review", "validator_status": "passed", "validator_run": { "validated_at": "2026-08-04", "command": "python3 skills/research-buffett-munger-company/scripts/validate_company_research.py docs/meitu-01357-hk/combined-artifact.v2.json", "gate_count": 9, "dimension_count": 25, "indicator_count": 50, "source_count": 21, "errors": [], "warnings": [] }, "reviewer": null, "reviewed_at": null, "critical_gaps": [ "2026H1 预告已经发布，但正式毛利、SBC、CFO、净现金和稀释 EPS 尚未发布。", "20 条 FY2025/Q1 核心事实与 31 条关键事实定位已进入页码/表名/行号/哈希证据层；新 H1 预告已绑定官方 PDF 哈希，但全摊薄奖励重叠、未来 CB 利息和最新同日股数仍未解决。", "独立客户/竞争者证据与人工审阅未完成。" ], "publication_state": "structured_research_snapshot_not_production_reviewed", "reviewed_for_publication": false }, "disclaimer": "This is a research-support artifact, not investment advice. 情景、估值和风险条件用于证据审计，不构成收益承诺或证券交易指令。" }