{
  "schema_version": "seed.company-research-red-team.v1",
  "company": "Horizon Robotics",
  "security_id": "XHKG:09660",
  "reviewer_or_agent": "independent Codex research subagent",
  "reviewed_at": "2026-07-29T11:30:00+08:00",
  "status": "needs_human_review",
  "counter_thesis": "地平线可能已证明产品商业化，却尚未证明收入增长可穿过研发、营运资本、关联结构和稀释，转成充分摊薄后的每股owner earnings。",
  "strongest_disconfirming_evidence": [
    {
      "claim_challenged": "收入高增长自然带来经营杠杆。",
      "evidence": "FY2025收入+57.7%，调整后经营亏损+58.7%；2026H1调整后净亏损预告仍扩大。",
      "source_refs": [
        "H01",
        "H03"
      ]
    },
    {
      "claim_challenged": "定点数量可视为订单。",
      "evidence": "招股书明确design-win不保证销售订单，合同后到SOP仍需8–36个月。",
      "source_refs": [
        "H08"
      ]
    },
    {
      "claim_challenged": "现金多就不存在每股资本成本。",
      "evidence": "CARIAD、新CB和已授予奖励形成14.39%的已知潜在股数增幅。",
      "source_refs": [
        "H04",
        "H05",
        "H06",
        "H07"
      ]
    },
    {
      "claim_challenged": "高毛利许可足以证明护城河。",
      "evidence": "客户集中、关联销售、OEM自研与多平台替代仍存在，且非关联许可留存未披露。",
      "source_refs": [
        "H01",
        "H08",
        "P01",
        "P02",
        "P03"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "failure_modes": [
    {
      "name": "conversion_gap",
      "mechanism": "定点未按期转SOP、出货和回款。",
      "observable_signals": [
        "SOP车型数",
        "实际出货",
        "取消率",
        "应收增速"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "margin_and_cash_failure",
      "mechanism": "低毛利硬件、价格竞争和研发投入吞噬许可利润。",
      "observable_signals": [
        "产品毛利率",
        "调整经营亏损",
        "OCF/收入",
        "现金OE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "platform_substitution",
      "mechanism": "下一代车型改用华为、Mobileye、Qualcomm、NVIDIA、黑芝麻或OEM自研。",
      "observable_signals": [
        "续标率",
        "客户下一代平台",
        "同车型第二供应源"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "per_share_dilution",
      "mechanism": "融资与激励增长快于经济收益。",
      "observable_signals": [
        "全摊薄股本",
        "SBC",
        "新配售/债券",
        "每股现金OE"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "invalidation_conditions": [
    {
      "condition": "连续两个半年度同口径毛利增速高于经营费用增速，调整经营亏损绝对额下降。",
      "effect_on_counter_thesis": "削弱增长无经营杠杆的反方。"
    },
    {
      "condition": "TTM核心OCF与扣维持投入后的充分摊薄每股OE转正。",
      "effect_on_counter_thesis": "削弱现金复利尚未成立的反方。"
    },
    {
      "condition": "定点转SOP、出货、非关联许可收入与回款同步增长。",
      "effect_on_counter_thesis": "削弱定点质量和关联依赖反方。"
    }
  ],
  "unresolved_issues": [
    {
      "gap": "No customer-level design-win → contract → SOP → shipment → revenue → cash ledger."
    },
    {
      "gap": "No audited 2026H1 full financial statements or continuing-operations cash flow at cut-off."
    },
    {
      "gap": "No maintenance/growth R&D and capex split."
    },
    {
      "gap": "No completed pro-forma balance sheet after D-Robotics deconsolidation and July financing."
    },
    {
      "gap": "No named human approval; machine fact pack remains reconciliation_pending."
    }
  ],
  "next_review": {
    "event": "2026H1 full interim results and July transaction completion notices",
    "minimum_checks": [
      "continuing revenue mix",
      "adjusted operating loss",
      "CFO",
      "receivables",
      "inventory",
      "CARIAD closing",
      "CB issuance",
      "fully diluted shares"
    ],
    "source_refs": [
      "H03",
      "H04",
      "H05",
      "H06",
      "H07"
    ]
  },
  "source_refs": [
    "H01",
    "H03",
    "H04",
    "H05",
    "H06",
    "H07",
    "H08",
    "P01",
    "P02",
    "P03"
  ],
  "disclaimer": "Independent evidence red-team; not investment advice or named human approval."
}